Study on the Influence of Social Economic Shift in Urban Activities to the Travel Demand and the City Structure

近年来，城市活动的结构发生了很大的变化，如老年人口的大量增加，社会中职业妇女的扩大，软产业或经济的发展等。也就是说，我们的城市社会正在带来一种社会经济机制的转变。这种城市活动结构的变化对土地利用产生了巨大的影响，改变了出行需求结构的根源。因此，在制定城市土地利用规划或交通规划时，必须顺应社会经济活动的潮流。并且，为了构建旅游需求预测系统，需要考虑社会经济活动、土地利用与旅游之间的相互关系，本文对旅游需求和旅游需求进行了研究。土地利用预测模型和预测系统的主要成果有三点。(1)考虑到个体属性的差异，建立了一系列出行产生预测模型、出行产生与吸引预测模型和出行产生时间分布模型。研究结果阐明了未来城市社会经济活动的变化，即旅游需求结构，使旅游需求预测成为可能。(2)分析了城市土地利用结构的变化。也就是说，土地利用的变化成分是由有计划的大型项目的推进和土地利用的随机过渡给出的。研究还发现，土地利用的变化可以用土地利用类型和每种类型的土地利用分类分布来解释。此外，还建立了一个能够响应当前社会经济活动的土地利用预测系统。(3)考察了土地利用与出行需求的关系，详细分析了土地利用对出行需求的影响。探讨了解决城市中心区停车问题、商圈负荷问题以及商业设施建设带来的城市结构变化的对策。少

Recently, there has been much changing the structure of urban activities such as a great increase of aged persons, expansion of working women in society, development of soft industries or economics and so on. It is to say that our urban society is bringing out a shift of social-economic mechanism. This change of urban activity's structure is greatly affecting on the land use and changing the root of travel demand structure.Therefore, it is necessary to go along with the current of social-economic activities for making a land use plan or transportation plan of city. And, for the built-up of a predicting system of travel demand, it is required to consider mutual relationships among social-economic activity, land use and travel and travel demand are studied in this paper and demand.Predicting models and systems of land use following three points are major results.(1) A series of predicting models of trip production, trip generation ＆ attraction and time distribution models of trip generat … More ion have been built up, considering the difference in individual personal attributes. As a result, understanding a future shift of social-economical activities in a city, the structure of travel demand, was clarified and the prediction of travel demand has been made possible.(2) The changing structure of urban land use was analyzed. That is, it was found that the changing components of land use are given by the promotion of scheduled large scale projects and the stochastic transition of land use. It was also found that the change of land use could be explained by land use patterns and the distribution of land use classifications in each pattern. In addition, a prediction system of land use was developed, which could respond to the current of social economic activity.(3) Examining the relationship between the land use and travel demand, the influence of land use to the travel demand was analyzed in detail. Besides, the strategies for the parking problem in urban central area, the loading problem in business district and the change in urban structure based on the construction of commercial facilities were discussed. Less