Study on the Influence of Social Economic Shift in Urban Activities to the Travel Demand and the City Structure

近年来，城市活动的结构发生了很大的变化，如老年人的大量增加，社会中职业妇女的扩大，软工业或经济的发展等等，可以说，我们的城市社会正在引起社会经济机制的转变。这种城市活动结构的变化对土地利用产生了巨大的影响，也改变了交通需求结构的根源，因此，城市土地利用规划或交通规划的制定必须沿着社会经济活动的潮流。在交通需求预测系统的建立中，需要考虑社会经济活动、土地利用和交通三者之间的相互关系，本文研究了交通需求与交通需求之间的关系，主要研究了以下三个方面的土地利用预测模型和系统。(1)建立了一系列的出行产生预测模型、出行生成与吸引预测模型和出行生成时间分布模型， ...更多信息 离子已经建立，考虑到个人的个人属性的差异。其结果是，明确了城市社会经济活动的未来变化--交通需求的结构，并使交通需求的预测成为可能。(2)分析了城市土地利用变化结构。研究发现，土地利用的变化是由大型项目的推进和土地利用的随机变迁共同决定的。研究还发现，土地利用变化可以用土地利用类型和土地利用类型在各类型中的分布来解释。同时，建立了一个能反映社会经济活动趋势的土地利用预测系统。(3)从土地利用与交通需求的关系入手，详细分析了土地利用对交通需求的影响。并对城市中心区停车问题、商业区负荷问题以及商业设施建设引起的城市结构变化等问题的解决策略进行了探讨。少

Recently, there has been much changing the structure of urban activities such as a great increase of aged persons, expansion of working women in society, development of soft industries or economics and so on. It is to say that our urban society is bringing out a shift of social-economic mechanism. This change of urban activity's structure is greatly affecting on the land use and changing the root of travel demand structure.Therefore, it is necessary to go along with the current of social-economic activities for making a land use plan or transportation plan of city. And, for the built-up of a predicting system of travel demand, it is required to consider mutual relationships among social-economic activity, land use and travel and travel demand are studied in this paper and demand.Predicting models and systems of land use following three points are major results.(1) A series of predicting models of trip production, trip generation ＆ attraction and time distribution models of trip generat … More ion have been built up, considering the difference in individual personal attributes. As a result, understanding a future shift of social-economical activities in a city, the structure of travel demand, was clarified and the prediction of travel demand has been made possible.(2) The changing structure of urban land use was analyzed. That is, it was found that the changing components of land use are given by the promotion of scheduled large scale projects and the stochastic transition of land use. It was also found that the change of land use could be explained by land use patterns and the distribution of land use classifications in each pattern. In addition, a prediction system of land use was developed, which could respond to the current of social economic activity.(3) Examining the relationship between the land use and travel demand, the influence of land use to the travel demand was analyzed in detail. Besides, the strategies for the parking problem in urban central area, the loading problem in business district and the change in urban structure based on the construction of commercial facilities were discussed. Less