Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics

该项目旨在将计量经济学模型（推理的经验工具）和经济模型（理论）更紧密地结合在一起。打算提出一个新的模式，以解决解释计量经济学模式产出的一个重要问题。作为第一个贡献，该项目预计将开发模型和推理框架，这个模型使用概率论流形。在第二个贡献中，预计将构建一种算法，以允许推理得出对政策分析师有用的输出。该模型的目的是简约，这有助于开发一个随时间变化的版本，使模型能够随着经济的发展而发展，并提供更好的政策指导。

This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.