Development, applications and verification of decision models with incomplete information for multiple decision makers

在本研究中，我们处理了多个决策者的决策问题，其中问题的参数不能被明确定义，或者决策者的一致性不能总是被假设。为了找到对特定决策者更好的结果，我们从给决策者一些如何做出决策的建议的角度来研究决策问题。通过引入决策者的偏好和信念，估计其他决策者对策略的选择，考察了决策者应该选择的策略。为此，我们制定了一些数学规划问题，并开发了计算方法来获得问题的最优解。研究方案包括以下四个部分：1.处理了层次化决策问题，并考察了问题中的理性策略。基于所提出的模型开发了决策支持系统。将决策支持系统应用于实际问题。我们使用基于主体的人工社会模型研究了集体理性等某种规范成立的社会类型。我们在相关领域的国际期刊上发表了上述研究计划的部分成果，并在2001-2002年的国际会议上发表了一些论文。此外，我们还打算向国内和国际期刊发表一些论文，并继续在题为《解决冲突的模糊和多目标博弈》一书中介绍我们一直在进行的相关研究工作，如本报告参考文献所示。

In this research, we dealt with decision making problems with multiple decision makers, in which parameters of the problems cannot be explicitly defined or consistency of the decision makers cannot always be assumed. To find an outcome better for a particular decision maker, we examined the decision making problems from the point of view that we give the decision maker some advice on how to make a decision. By introducing the preference and some belief of the decision maker and estimating choice of strategies of the other decision makers, we examined strategies which should be selected by the decision maker. To do so, we formulated some mathematical programming problems and developed computational methods for obtaining optimal solutions to the problems. The research program consisted of the following four parts :1. We dealt with hierarchal decision making problems and examined rational strategies in the problems.2. We developed decision support systems based on the proposed models.3. We applied the decision support systems to real world problems.4. We investigated types of societies in which a certain norm such as the collective rationality holds by using agent-based artificial society models.We have published a part of the results of the above research program in international journals of the related fields and have also presented some papers in international conferences in 2001-2002. Moreover we intend to contribute some papers to domestic and international journals, and the related research works that we have been continuing presented in the book entitled "Fuzzy and Multiobjective Games for Conflict Resolution" as is shown in the References of this report.