The assessment and a forecasting model for water quality environments on closing coastal area.

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In this research, "The assessment and a forecasting model for water quality environments on closing coastal area", is carried out for the purpose to construct the environment-assessment model which can express land and sea as one-body. The obtained results are summarized as following.1.As a pollution load generating/outflow model in land-area, the technique of using system dynamics first was built. This technique is very effective, when the pollution load generating cause is very intricately related especially, or when those time/spatial causal relationship cannot express by the easy expression of relations.2.In order to perform quantitatively influence evaluation of the land load to ocean space, the tank model was used and technique construction was carried out. This technique was applied to the Yura bay, and environment assessment and prediction using an ecosystem model were carried out..3.In order to perform evaluation and prediction of the water quality environment in ocean space, … More the new ecosystem model which can take strict substance circulation into consideration was built. This was applied to Utsumi of a "Rinkuu-park" and the validity was shown. It is thought that this technique can be developed to the quantitive environmental-impact-assessment technique.4.In order to build the environmental impact assessment and the prediction technique using the results of an investigation currently measured in Osaka Bay, while inquiring about the various techniques of data analysis and showing the validity of the technique using a seasonal model, change of the environment in Osaka Bay was clarified.About the way of considering which receives the environmental impact assessment and forecasting model which made land and sea one-body, and its technique, the concrete proposal was able to be performed and those validity was able to be shown. Further, the result obtained here can develop, he can develop it, and it is thought that it can use effective in a future environmental policy etc. Less