Empirical research of impacts of intermediate foreign trade on employment

该项目的主要成果可归纳如下。(a)虽然以前的研究往往没有发现进口竞争对日本就业的重大影响，但它们依赖于综合数据。通过使用最初构建的四位数分类数据一致性，我们发现进口竞争的影响在日本制造业中已不可忽视。(b)我们将联合收割机的进口就业数据与总工作流数据相结合。进口渗透对日本就业的影响表现在就业创造总量的减少，而不是就业破坏总量的增加。这一发现与法国之前的结果一致，但与美国的结果形成对比。(c)我们按国内的地理位置对工业进行了分类。在中间投入和专门人力资本供应丰富的区域，进口竞争对就业的影响往往较小。另一方面，近10年来，地区对最终产品的大规模吸收所产生的积极影响有所下降。在本项目的最终报告中，提供了日本制造业普查分类中以四位数分类的零部件进口数据。虽然本项目成功地揭示了日本的许多新发现，但在日本，零部件进口数据的增长率仍然很低。今后工作的剩余任务包括广泛使用新收集的零部件进口数据，对分散和外国外包进行计量经济学分析。

The main results from this project can be summarized as follows.(a) Although previous studies often found no significant impacts of import competition on employment in the case of Japan, they depended on aggregated data. By using the originally constructed data concordance at the disaggregated four-digit level, we find that the impact of import competition is no longer negligible in Japanese manufacturing industries.(b) We combine the import-employment data concordance with gross job flow data. The impact of import penetration on employment in Japan can be found in the decreasing gross job creation rather in the increasing gross job destruction. This finding is consistent with previous results from France, but contrasts with U.S. results.(c) We disaggregate industries by the location within the country. The impact of import competition on employment tends to be minor in regions with rich regional supply of intermediate inputs and of specialized human capital. On the other hand, the positive impact of large regional absorption of final products declined in the recent decade.The import data of part and components, distinguished from final products, at disaggregated four-digit level of Japan's Census of Manufactures classifications, are available in the final report of this project.Although this project succeeded in revealing many new findings in the case of Japan, remained tasks for future work include the extensive use of newly collected data of component imports, econometric analyses of fragmentation and foreign outsourcing.