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Econometric analysis of the behavior of the Japanese insurance firms in the 1980's - Research on corporate strategies in the Bubble Economy -

1980年代日本保险公司行为的计量分析 - 泡沫经济中的企业战略研究 -

基本信息

批准号：
13630156
负责人：
MIYASHITA Hiroshi
金额：
$ 1.54万
依托单位：
Kyoto Sangyo University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Using the panel data of major nineteen Japanese non-life insurance firms during 1969 - 1998, the simultaneous-equation model which consists of the translog cost function and the share-equations was estimated by maximum-likelihood method and cost inefficiencies were calculated. These inefficiencies were adjusted to make them consistent statistically. The adjusted inefficiencies were transformed into eleven ranks. Thus we have 570 ranks in terms of cost inefficiency of the nineteen firms during 1969 - 1998.Qualitative-dependent-variable models were considered for the analysis of the rank data, and we picked up an ordered-probability model for this purpose. Four exogeneous variables were selected to capture the variation in ranks. They are surplus, insurance premium, interest rate, and total assets. From the results of the estimation of the model, it was observed that both surplus and insurance premium have a positive effect on the ranks, i.e., if the amount of surplus or insurance premium increases, cost inefficiencies tend to decrease. It was also found that lower interest rates tend to increase cost inefficiencies. This finding is quite understandable because the extremely low interest rates after the collapse of the bubble economy caused damage to the insurance firms. However, total assets have a negative impact and larger firms tend to be less efficient.

利用1969 - 1998年日本19家主要非寿险公司的面板数据，采用最大似然法估计了由超越对数成本函数和份额方程组成的非线性方程模型，计算了非寿险公司的成本无效率。对这些低效率进行了调整，使其在统计上保持一致。调整后的低效率被转化为11个等级。因此，我们有570个等级的成本效率的1969 - 1998年期间的19家公司。定性因变量模型被认为是分析的排名数据，我们拿起一个有序概率模型，用于这一目的。选择四个外生变量来捕获秩的变化。它们是盈余、保险费、利率和总资产。从模型的估计结果可以看出，盈余和保险费对排名都有积极的影响，即，如果盈余额或保险费增加，成本效率低下的情况往往会减少。研究还发现，较低的利率往往会增加成本效率低下的情况。这是可以理解的，因为泡沫经济崩溃后的极低利率对保险公司造成了损害。然而，总资产有负面影响，规模较大的公司往往效率较低。