Studies on an updating procedure for efficiently estimating spatial distribution of earthquake ground motion indices fro early damage assessment

早期损伤评估中有效估计地震地震动指数空间分布的更新程序研究

• 批准号: 13650525
• 负责人: NODA shigeru
• 金额: $ 2.3万
• 依托单位: Kagawa University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13650525/
• 关键词: early earthquake damage assessment; ground motion indices; stochastic interpolation; real-time estimation; updating algorithm; Kriging; post-earthquake emergency management; リアルタイム地震防災; 空間情報処理; 漸化型推定法

Recently, several earthquake monitoring networks have been established in order to use earthquake information for early warning or damage assessment of urban systems. However, there is a limit to the number of seismographs that can be installed. In such a case, it is important to estimate earthquake motion by interpolation and extrapolation while taking into account the spatial distribution of seismic wave-forms and ground conditions and its uncertainty, as well as to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation.in this paper, an updating procedure was efficiently estimating the spatial distribution of earthquake ground motion indices when a one or more observed data are sequentially available. The update equations of simple and universal kriging were derived. The characteristic values of earthquake motion follow a lognormal distribution. A simple kriging is an interpolation problem when stochastic characteristics (mean values and covariance) of earthquake motion are specified in terms of location, and a universal kriging is such a problem when the spatial change in mean values in unknown. Numerical results show that as the number of observed data increases, better estimates are recursively obtained, and at the same time the error variances reduce. It is found that this procedure offers a significant computational saving when compared to a naive kriging implementation.

最近，已经建立了多个地震监测网络，以便利用地震信息对城市系统进行预警或损害评估。然而，可安装的地震仪数量是有限的。在这种情况下，在考虑地震波形和地面条件的空间分布及其不确定性的同时，通过插值和外推来估计地震运动，并评估估计的准确性。本文提出了一种更新过程，当一个或多个观测数据连续可用时，有效地估计地震地震动指数的空间分布。推导了简单克里金法和通用克里金法的更新方程。地震运动的特征值服从对数正态分布。简单克里金法是当地震运动的随机特征（平均值和协方差）根据位置指定时的插值问题，而通用克里金法是当平均值的空间变化未知时的插值问题。数值结果表明，随着观测数据数量的增加，递归地获得更好的估计，同时误差方差减小。研究发现，与简单的克里金法实现相比，该过程可显着节省计算量。