A New Framework for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis

本文的主要研究成果如下：（1）将金融市场不完全性引入动态一般均衡模型，建立了经常账户动态模型。推导出模型的解析解，并对日本经济在完善资本市场条件下的参数限制进行了检验，在非常高的显著性水平上，我们拒绝了这些限制，得出了资本市场不完善在日本经济中起着重要作用的结论。（2）利用日本制造业的数据，验证了主银行制度的重要性。结果表明，主银行制度对日本银行业的效率有负面影响。(3)We扩展第一代金融危机模型，并表明该模型可以解释独立于经济基本面的软货币的系统性贬值。（4）利用日本劳动力市场的流动数据，我们发现，最近失业的流入和流出都在增加，失业的可能性也在上升。（5）分析了长期增长的决定因素。结果表明，存在一个最优专利长度，以最大化福利水平，政府的债务多边形影响的长期增长率。（6）构建两国两种商品动态模型，分析财政政策的国际溢出效应。我们推导出一个精确的公式表示的福利效应，并通过使用它，我们表明，一个国家的财政扩张的福利效应取决于外国资产状况和政府支出的构成。

The main results of this project are as follows:(1)Introducing financial market imperfection into the dynamic general equilibrium model, we develop a model of current account dynamics. Deriving analytical solution to the model, we test parameter restrictions under the perfect capital market for the Japanese economy The restrictions are rejected at a very high significance level and we conclude that the capital market imperfection plays an important role in Japan. (2)The importance of the main bank system is tested by using Japanese data on the manufacturing sector. The results indicate that the main bank system has a negative effect on the efficiency of the Japanese banking sector. (3)We extend the first-generation models of financial crises and show that the model can explain systematic devaluations of soft currencies that are independent of the fundamentals of an economy. (4)Using the Japanese flow data on the labor market, we show that the recent inflows and outflow to unemployment are both increasing and that the possibility of unemployment is also rising. (5)The determinants of long-run growth are analyzed. It is shown that there is an optimal patent length to maximize the welfare level and that the debt poly of the government affects the long-run growth rate. (6)Constructing a two-country two goods dynamic model, we analyze the international spillover effects of fiscal policy. We derive an exact formula expressing the welfare effect, and by use of it we show that the welfare effect of a country's fiscal expansion depends on the foreign asset position and on the composition of the government spending.