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Construction of Model on Measuring Effects of Airline Deregulation Using a Real-Option-Method

用实物期权法构建衡量航空公司放松管制效果的模型

基本信息

批准号：
14550521
负责人：
TAMURA Tohru
金额：
$ 2.62万
依托单位：
Muroran Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Japan's civil aviation deregulation began with the termination of the 1970 & 1972 scheme, which determined the business fields of the nation's airline companies, in June 1986. After the introduction of the air fare system in which the standard cost was set as the maximum amount in 1996, the revised Civil Aviation Law was enforced in February 2000, abolishing supply-demand adjustment regulations on the premise of security and providing airline companies with the freedom of divesting from routes as well as the freedom of setting fares.This research aims to establish an evaluation model based on the real option method in order to introduce civil aviation services into areas that are highly likely to become unprofitable routes for existing major airline companies by focusing on regional airline routes amid civil aviation deregulation.This research has led to the following conclusion :1)After deregulation, airline companies have had a tendency to change the number of seats available according to the load factor. In fact, even for routes whose load factor was below the break-even point, decisions as to whether routes would be maintained or reduced were made on the basis of demand fluctuations.2)Model on Measuring Effects of Airline Deregulation was established, based on the real option method in order to introduce civil aviation services into areas that are highly 1ikely to become unprofitable routes for existing major airline companies by focusing on regional airline routes amid civil aviation deregulation.

1986年6月，决定日本航空公司业务领域的1970年和1972年计划被终止，日本开始放松民航管制。1996年引入以最高标准费用为标准的票价制度后，2000年2月实施了《民用航空法》修订案，废除了以安全为前提的供需调整规定，并赋予航空公司放弃航线的自由和制定票价的自由。本研究旨在建立基于实物期权方法的评估模型，以便在民航管制放松的情况下，以区域航线为重点，将民航服务引入现有主要航空公司极有可能成为无利可图航线的地区。本研究得出以下结论：1)放松管制后，航空公司有根据客座率改变座位数量的趋势。事实上，即使是客座率低于盈亏平衡点的航线，也要根据需求波动来决定是保留还是减少航线。2)为了在民航管制放松的情况下，以区域航线为重点，将民航服务引入到现有主要航空公司极有可能成为无利可图航线的地区，基于实物期权方法建立了航空管制放松效应测量模型。