SIMULATION MODEL FOR FORECASTING PATH FLOWS AND TRAVEL TIMES USING PROBE DATA

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In order to grasp movements of a vehicle running the expressway between MINAMI interchange on TOKAI-HOKURIKU expressway and OKAZAKI interchange on TOMEI expressway, in which 3 routes exist, vehicle locations (latitude and longitude) by 1 second were recorded by a GPS receiver on each test vehicle. Simultaneously, traffic condition was recorded by a digital video camera set on the dashboard of the test vehicle. In this floating investigation, three test vehicles started at the same time and ran on a different route. The test vehicle started 15 minute interval. Moreover, in order to observe travel times of all vehicle running on the different routes, high resolution digital video cameras were used to record the number plate of each vehicle at 6 points, downstream of MINAMI interchange, on CHUO expressway, on TOKAI-KANJYO expressway, upstream and downstream of NAGOYA interchange, and upstream OKAZAKI interchange. The recorded GPS data were expressed by GIS so that spatial and temporal vehicle movements were depicted. The time variations of travel times on each route were also obtained form number plate survey. These vehicle movements, travel times and traffic counts were analyzed fundamentally so that the relationship between dynamic traffic conditions and route change behavior was established. Traffic simulation was developed by using these vehicle movement data obtained from the survey and the traffic counts. The simulation model estimates travel times accurately between interchanges. It was clarified that route change relieves traffic congestion and prevents increase of travel times with the developed simulation model.