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Econometric Study on Agricultural Productivity Influenced by Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement

日韩自贸协定对农业生产率影响的计量经济学研究

基本信息

批准号：
17580203
负责人：
KONDO Katsunobu
金额：
$ 2.37万
依托单位：
Asahikawa University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The purpose of this study is to measure rice productivity growth and to evaluate the impact of environmental pollution from agriculture caused by agricultural trade liberalization between Japan and Korea. Results of the study can be summarized as follows.First, we measure rice productivity change employing the input-oriented Malmquist productivity indices through comparison of productivity growth between the pre-Rice Acreage Control Programmes period 1957-1970 (pre-RACP period) and the Rice Acreage Control Programmes period 1971-1995 (RACP period). The productivity change is decomposed into catching-up effect and technical change. Empirical results suggest that Japan's annual productivity growth during RACP period was stagnant and lower than pre-RACP period. The technical progress was dominant compared to the catching-up effect in both the pre-RACP and RACP periods. These results suggest that the growth rate for rice productivity in Japan will decline to zero percent in the future.Second, we investigate the potential impact of environmental pollution from agriculture caused by agricultural trade liberalization under the Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement (JKFTA) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the OECD Nitrogen Balance Database. The scenario we model assumes the complete removal of all import tariffs between Japan and Korea, not only in the agricultural sector but in non-agricultural sectors, as well. The GTAP results show that farm outputs increase significantly in Korea and decrease slightly in Japan. Farm production of most commodities slightly declines in Japan, while outputs from the livestock sector and the rice sector exhibit significant expansion in Korea. The nitrogen balance results show that the possible JKFTA have a relatively greater impact on the environmental pollution from agriculture in Korea than in Japan. The JKFTA is likely to lead to an overall increase in the total nitrogen surplus for Japan and Korea.

本研究的目的是衡量日韩农业贸易自由化对水稻生产力增长的影响，并评估农业环境污染对日韩贸易自由化的影响。研究结果如下：首先，我们利用面向投入的Malmquist生产力指数，通过比较1957-1970年(RACP前)和1971-1995(RACP前)水稻种植面积控制计划期间的生产率增长来衡量水稻生产力的变化。将生产率变动分解为赶超效应和技术变革。实证结果表明，在RACP期间，日本的年生产率增长停滞不前，低于RACP之前。与RACP前和RACP期间的追赶效应相比，技术进步占主导地位。其次，利用全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)模型和OECD氮平衡数据库，研究了日韩自由贸易协定(JKFTA)下农业贸易自由化对农业环境污染的潜在影响。我们模拟的情景假设完全取消日本和韩国之间的所有进口关税，不仅在农业部门，而且在非农业部门也是如此。GTAP结果表明，韩国农业产量显著增加，日本略有下降。在日本，大多数大宗商品的农业生产略有下降，而在韩国，畜牧业和大米部门的产量出现了显著增长。氮平衡结果表明，可能的JKFTA对韩国农业环境污染的影响相对大于日本。JKFTA可能会导致日本和韩国的总氮盈余总体增加。