Econometric Study on Agricultural Productivity Influenced by Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement

本研究的目的是衡量日本和韩国之间的农业贸易自由化对水稻生产率的增长和农业环境污染的影响。研究结果如下：首先，我们通过比较水稻种植面积控制计划前（1957-1970年）和水稻种植面积控制计划期间（1971-1995年）的生产力增长，采用投入导向的Malmquist生产力指数来衡量水稻生产力的变化。生产率变动分解为追赶效应和技术变动。实证结果表明，日本的年度生产率增长在RACP期间是停滞的，低于前RACP期间。与前RACP和RACP时期的追赶效应相比，技术进步占主导地位。这些结果表明，今后日本的稻米生产率增长率将降至零。其次，利用全球贸易分析项目（GTAP）模型和OECD氮平衡数据库，对日韩自由贸易协定（JKFTA）下的农业贸易自由化所带来的农业环境污染的潜在影响进行了研究。我们模拟的情景假设日本和韩国之间的所有进口关税完全取消，不仅在农业部门，而且在非农业部门也是如此。GTAP的结果表明，韩国的农业产出大幅增加，日本略有下降。日本大多数商品的农业产量略有下降，而韩国畜牧业和稻米业的产量则大幅增长。氮平衡结果表明，可能的JKFTA对韩国农业环境污染的影响相对大于日本。《日韩自由贸易协定》可能会导致日本和韩国的总氮盈余全面增加。

The purpose of this study is to measure rice productivity growth and to evaluate the impact of environmental pollution from agriculture caused by agricultural trade liberalization between Japan and Korea. Results of the study can be summarized as follows.First, we measure rice productivity change employing the input-oriented Malmquist productivity indices through comparison of productivity growth between the pre-Rice Acreage Control Programmes period 1957-1970 (pre-RACP period) and the Rice Acreage Control Programmes period 1971-1995 (RACP period). The productivity change is decomposed into catching-up effect and technical change. Empirical results suggest that Japan's annual productivity growth during RACP period was stagnant and lower than pre-RACP period. The technical progress was dominant compared to the catching-up effect in both the pre-RACP and RACP periods. These results suggest that the growth rate for rice productivity in Japan will decline to zero percent in the future.Second, we investigate the potential impact of environmental pollution from agriculture caused by agricultural trade liberalization under the Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement (JKFTA) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the OECD Nitrogen Balance Database. The scenario we model assumes the complete removal of all import tariffs between Japan and Korea, not only in the agricultural sector but in non-agricultural sectors, as well. The GTAP results show that farm outputs increase significantly in Korea and decrease slightly in Japan. Farm production of most commodities slightly declines in Japan, while outputs from the livestock sector and the rice sector exhibit significant expansion in Korea. The nitrogen balance results show that the possible JKFTA have a relatively greater impact on the environmental pollution from agriculture in Korea than in Japan. The JKFTA is likely to lead to an overall increase in the total nitrogen surplus for Japan and Korea.