Vulnerability evaluation on rice production in response to sea-level rise in Vietnam Mekong Delta

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We conducted an integrated evaluation for impacts of sea-level rise and the consequent sea water intrusion on rice production in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) in terms of the vulnerability, based on the field survey, historical data analysis and discussion with Vietnamese researchers. As a vulnerability index, we defined the difference between possible cropping period and required one under the available water resources and weather condition. We found the index could indicate the past rice cultivation status. We also made projections on the changes of crop calendar, harvested area and yield based on climate change scenario and changes in river discharge of Mekong river. It is projected that the harvested area would decrease in upstream region and coastal region at flooded year and small rainfall year. In the other regions, however, the increases in harvest area and yield compensate for the decrease. Changes of total cultivation area would be small irrespective of spatial variation, while yield would change largely due to high temperature. Consequently, total production of rice in VMD would decrease by 11% relative to present level.