Vulnerability evaluation on rice production in response to sea-level rise in Vietnam Mekong Delta

越南湄公河三角洲海平面上升对水稻生产的脆弱性评估

• 批准号: 19405040
• 负责人: YOKOZAWA Masayuki
• 金额: $ 6.91万
• 依托单位: National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2007 至 2009
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-19405040/
• 关键词: 塩水遡上; 塩害; 気候変動; 国際研究者交流; ベトナム

We conducted an integrated evaluation for impacts of sea-level rise and the consequent sea water intrusion on rice production in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) in terms of the vulnerability, based on the field survey, historical data analysis and discussion with Vietnamese researchers. As a vulnerability index, we defined the difference between possible cropping period and required one under the available water resources and weather condition. We found the index could indicate the past rice cultivation status. We also made projections on the changes of crop calendar, harvested area and yield based on climate change scenario and changes in river discharge of Mekong river. It is projected that the harvested area would decrease in upstream region and coastal region at flooded year and small rainfall year. In the other regions, however, the increases in harvest area and yield compensate for the decrease. Changes of total cultivation area would be small irrespective of spatial variation, while yield would change largely due to high temperature. Consequently, total production of rice in VMD would decrease by 11% relative to present level.

在实地调查、历史资料分析和与越南学者讨论的基础上，从脆弱性的角度对海平面上升和海水入侵对越南湄公河三角洲水稻生产的影响进行了综合评价。作为脆弱性指标，我们定义了在现有水资源和气候条件下，可能的种植期与需要的种植期之间的差异。结果表明，该指数能够反映水稻的种植状况。根据气候变化情景和湄公河流域径流量的变化，对作物历期、收获面积和产量的变化进行了预测。预计在洪水年和少雨年，上游地区和沿海地区的收获面积将减少。然而，在其他区域，收获面积和产量的增加弥补了减少。无论空间变化如何，总种植面积的变化都很小，而产量的变化则主要是由于高温。因此，VMD的水稻总产量将相对于目前水平下降11%。

项目成果

Sensitivity of Salinity Intrusion to Sea Level Rise and River Flow Change in Vietnamese Mekong Delta-Impacts on Availability of Irrigation Water for Rice Cropping

• DOI: 10.2480/agrmet.64.3.4
• 发表时间: 2008-09-01
• 期刊: Journal of Agricultural Meteorology
• 影响因子: 1.3
• 作者: Khang, Nguyen Duy;Kotera, Akihiko;Yokozawa, Masayuki
• 通讯作者: Yokozawa, Masayuki

ベトナム・メコンデルタの塩水遡上による水稲生産の脆弱性

越南湄公河三角洲咸水入侵导致稻米生产脆弱

• 发表时间: 2008
• 作者: 小寺昭彦;グエン-ズイ-カン;坂本利弘;横沢正幸
• 通讯作者: 横沢正幸

Regional Consequences of Seawater Intrusion on Rice Productivity and Land Use in Coastal Area of the Mekong River Delta

• DOI: 10.6090/jarq.42.267
• 发表时间: 2008-10-01
• 期刊: JARQ-JAPAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY
• 影响因子: 0.4
• 作者: Kotera, Akihiko;Sakamoto, Toshihiro;Yokozawa, Masayuki
• 通讯作者: Yokozawa, Masayuki

Variations in water resources in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta in response to climate change and their impacts on rice production

气候变化导致越南湄公河三角洲水资源变化及其对水稻生产的影响

• 发表时间: 2010
• 期刊: Journal of Agricultural Meteorology vol.66
• 作者: Khang ND;Kotera A;Iizumi T;Sakamoto T;Yokozawa M
• 通讯作者: Yokozawa M

Studies on Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Japan and the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

气候变化对日本和越南湄公河三角洲水稻生产影响的研究

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: 小寺昭彦;et al.
• 通讯作者: et al.