The investigation of risk prediction and efficient allocation of healthcare resources regarding the priority investment of preventive medicine using Data Mining

我们根据卫生账户系统（SHA）估算了日本2005 - 2009财政年度的卫生总支出。卫生总支出从2005财政年度的333910亿日元增加到2009财政年度的341231亿日元，占全国卫生总支出的80%-82%。通过估算，可以提高卫生总支出的国际可比性，并提供有助于评估卫生政策的统计数据。希望这方面的研究能够继续考虑基于卫生支出的多阶段分析的医疗改革，然后通过医疗保健和预防的行为模型来评估和挑选适合疾病管理的疾病。预见性投资可以通过预防行为控制医疗费用，提高医疗质量。这一次，我们讨论了医疗保健和预防之间的实证研究结果，以及它在个人使用数据挖掘方面的问题。因此，有可能关注个人在医疗服务方面的附加价值，然后我们可以为提高经济效率和适当的医疗服务做出贡献。对卫生保健研究有重大贡献的《公共卫生》评价其医疗与预防的可替代性政策。另一方面，以计量经济学研究为主的经济学建立了医疗和预防两种行为模型，并对其政策进行了评价。公共卫生与经济学在方法和政策思想上存在很大差异。在完成复杂的政策评价时，需要在这一领域进行进一步的研究。

We estimated the total health expenditure of Japan in accordance with System of Health Accounts (SHA) between fiscal year 2005 and 2009. The total health expenditure increased form 33,391 billion yen in fiscal year 2005 to 34, 1231 billion yen in fiscal year 2009, and the national healthcare expenditure accounted it for 80%-82%. Through the estimation, we are able to improve the international comparability of total health expenditure, and to provide the statistics which were helpful to assess the healthcare policy. It is hoped that research about this be continued to consider the health care reform which bases the multiphase analysis over the health expenditure, and then we evaluated and picked up the appropriate diseases for disease management through behavior models on medical care and prevention. An anticipatory investment could curb medical expenses and improve the quality of health care through the preventive behavior.This time, we discussed the results of empirical research between medical care and prevention, and its problems regarding individuals using data mining. As s result, it could become possible to focus on the individual's additional value regarding health service, and then we could contribute to improve economic efficiency and the appropriate health service. Public Health, the great contribution to health care research, evaluate its policy concerning about the substitutability between medical care and prevention. On the other hand, Economics, mainly econometrics research, set two behavior models on medical care and prevention, afterwards evaluate its policy. There is a great difference in method and policy thought between Public Health and Economics. In accomplishing sophisticated policy evaluation, needs of further research is in this area.