The investigation of risk prediction and efficient allocation of healthcare resources regarding the priority investment of preventive medicine using Data Mining

我们根据卫生账户体系（SHA）估算了2005 - 2009财政年度日本的卫生总支出。卫生总支出从2005财政年度的333，910亿日元增加到2009财政年度的341，231亿日元，国家卫生保健支出占80%-82%。通过估算，我们可以提高卫生总费用的国际可比性，并提供有助于评估卫生政策的统计数据。希望能借由多阶段的卫生支出分析，结合医疗卫生改革，并借由医疗行为模式与预防行为模式，来评估与选择适合疾病管理的疾病。预期性投资可以通过预防行为来抑制医疗费用，提高医疗质量。本次，我们讨论了医疗与预防之间的实证研究结果，以及使用数据挖掘的个人问题。因此，它可以成为可能的关注个人的额外价值，关于卫生服务，然后我们可以有助于提高经济效率和适当的卫生服务。《公共卫生学》是对卫生保健研究的重大贡献，其政策评价主要关注医疗与预防的可替代性。另一方面，以计量经济学研究为主的经济学，建立了医疗和预防两个行为模型，并对其政策进行评价。公共卫生学与经济学在研究方法和政策思路上存在很大差异。在完成复杂的政策评估时，需要在这一领域进行进一步的研究。

We estimated the total health expenditure of Japan in accordance with System of Health Accounts (SHA) between fiscal year 2005 and 2009. The total health expenditure increased form 33,391 billion yen in fiscal year 2005 to 34, 1231 billion yen in fiscal year 2009, and the national healthcare expenditure accounted it for 80%-82%. Through the estimation, we are able to improve the international comparability of total health expenditure, and to provide the statistics which were helpful to assess the healthcare policy. It is hoped that research about this be continued to consider the health care reform which bases the multiphase analysis over the health expenditure, and then we evaluated and picked up the appropriate diseases for disease management through behavior models on medical care and prevention. An anticipatory investment could curb medical expenses and improve the quality of health care through the preventive behavior.This time, we discussed the results of empirical research between medical care and prevention, and its problems regarding individuals using data mining. As s result, it could become possible to focus on the individual's additional value regarding health service, and then we could contribute to improve economic efficiency and the appropriate health service. Public Health, the great contribution to health care research, evaluate its policy concerning about the substitutability between medical care and prevention. On the other hand, Economics, mainly econometrics research, set two behavior models on medical care and prevention, afterwards evaluate its policy. There is a great difference in method and policy thought between Public Health and Economics. In accomplishing sophisticated policy evaluation, needs of further research is in this area.