METHODOLOGY AND ITS IMPROVEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS

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This study focuses on the methodology of local population projections. The main results are as follows. (1) The cohort component method was widely used for local population projections in national and international governments. (2) The cohort component method was applied to provide more accurate forecast than net migration models. (3) The questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain assumptions that fertility rates will change. (4) The fertility and mortality of foreign people had little influence on local population projections in Japan. (5) The household projections by municipality were examined and its practical problems were discussed.