Parameterisierung hydrologischer Variabilität und Extreme und Untersuchung ihres Einflusses auf politische Konflikte bzw. internationale Zusammenarbeit der Anrainerstaaten in den 261 internationalen Flussgebieten der Erde.

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With the rising water demand worldwide, international cooperation in the water resources management has become an important issue. The degree of dispute or cooperation over water from transboundary rivers is often attributed to unfoavorable hydrologic conditions such as water scarcity of the occurrence of floods and droughts. However, few systematic analyses on this relationship have been carried out. A GIS based database with treaties and intensity-coded events of conflict or cooperation over water, set up by Prof. Dr. Aaron Wolf and his team at Oregon State University, provides a unique opportunity to study the link between hydrologic conditions and water related political conflict and cooperation. As the existing geographic database includes historic hydro-political data from 1948 to 2000 for all 261 international river basins worldwide, it is most suited to derive general theories on the role of hydrologic conditions and changes in hydro-politics. The proposed study will develop discharge and precipitation derived hydrologic parameters, which describe the variability, extreme events and changes over time as they are important to human perception. Using statistical methods, these parameters will be tested for their influence on the international relations within the global dataset of international basis. An analysis of the environmental and socio-economic conditions of basins for which certain parameters have a positive or negative influence will allow deducting valuable information for water resources management planning and political action.