Quantitative analysis on Airlines Merger in Japan

本项目对2001年日航与日航合并后的量化分析进行了研究。它采用结构性估计方法，利用1996年7月至2005年10月期间的数据，评估合并对日本国内航空公司市场结构的影响程度。分析中使用的模型考虑了航空公司和高速列车之间的多式联运竞争，并允许公司不仅选择价格，还允许对抗频率。内生性由工具变量的使用来控制。对起点和目的地水平的离散选择模型的估计表明，正在研究的合并并不是非常成功的，因为如果没有合并，日航将会更有利可图，社会福利也会得到改善。

This project has studied ex-post quantitative analysis on the JAL-JAS merger that took place in 2001. It employed a structural estimation method to assess the extent to which the merger affected the structure of the Japanese domestic airline market, by use of the data in the period from July 1996 to October 2005. The model used in the analysis takes into account inter-modal competition between airlines and super-speed trains, and also allows for firms to choose not only prices but also fights frequency. The endogeneity is controlled by the use of instrumental variables. The estimation of discrete choice model at the level of origin and destination pair reveals that the merger under study was not very successful, in that JAL would have been more profitable and the social welfare would have been improved in the absence of the merger.