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A New Explanation for Japan's Great Stagnation and Deflation

日本大停滞和通货紧缩的新解释

基本信息

批准号：
21530254
负责人：
RHODES James r
金额：
$ 2.83万
依托单位：
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2009
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2009 至 2011
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21530254/
关键词：
Stagnation Policy Impotence Liquidity Sump Liquidity Preference Confidence Black Swan Event Liquidity Sump Trap Deflation stagnation liquidity sump liquidity trap

项目摘要

In the liquidity sump theory of stagnation, extreme pessimism about an economy's growth potential results in a decline in asset prices and a nearly insatiable demand for liquidity. My research has shown that conventional money and expenditure multipliers become small and unstable in sump conditions. Furthermore, standard dynamic models(e. g. DSGE models) based on predictable structural and behavioral relationships have no predictive power in a liquidity sump. In such extreme conditions, conventional demand-management policies are ineffective. The focus of policy must be on restoring confidence through credible long-term policies that address the root cause(s) of generalized pessimism.

在关于经济停滞的流动性池理论中，对经济增长潜力的极端悲观情绪会导致资产价格下跌，以及对流动性几乎无法满足的需求。我的研究表明，传统的货币和支出乘数在水池条件下变得小而不稳定。此外，标准的动态模型(e。例如，基于可预测的结构和行为关系的DSGE模型在流动性池中没有预测能力。在这种极端情况下，传统的需求管理政策是无效的。政策的重点必须放在恢复信心上，通过可信的长期政策来解决普遍悲观情绪的根本原因。