An Economic Analysis of Nuclear Power Replacements : A Financial Engineering Approach

本文在不确定性投资决策理论的框架下，建立了核电替代项目的经济评价模型。我们展示了不确定性如何影响现有工厂的退役时间和新工厂的安装时间。此外，随着不确定性的增加，拆卸和翻新的机会减少，更换的机会增加。

In this study, we developed an economic evaluation model for projects of nuclear power replacements in a framework with respect to a theory of investment decision under uncertainty. We showed how uncertainties affect a decommissioning time for existing plant and an installation one for new plant. In addition, it turned out that as uncertainties become large, opportunities of dismantling and refurbishment decrease and an opportunity of replacement increases.