Studies on An Unbalanced Growth Among Industries

Kardor（1961）发现，总劳动份额随时间的推移呈现恒定。另一方面，Kuznets（1965）观察到人口从传统活动向现代活动的转变。换句话说，尽管基于宏观的观察显示了总劳动份额的平衡演变，但基于产业的观察显示了产业劳动份额的不平衡演变。我们看到最近的理论模型试图调和这些相互矛盾的事实。例如，Echevarria (1997), Kongsamut, Rebelo and Xie (2001), Acemoglu and Guerrieri（2008）和Young（2010）等。我将以Uzawa（1964）和Ara（1969）的模型为基础，建立一个新古典的考虑技术进步的两部门最优增长模型。我将使用Scheinkman和McKenzie的收费公路理论，而不是Uzawa的分析方法。我将证明1)存在一个最优稳态（OSS），其中每个部门的产出在特定部门的技术进步中增长，2)具有足够初始库存的最优路径将收敛到OSS。第一个结果表明，OSS展示了Kaldor的程式化事实，第二个结果表明，最优路径将在过渡期间以库兹涅茨过程为特征。

Kardor (1961) found that aggregated labor share exhibits constant over time. On the other hand, Kuznets (1965) observed the shift of population from traditional to modern activities. In other words, although the macro-based observation exhibits the balanced evolution of aggregated labor share, the industry-based observation shows the unbalanced evolution of industry labor ’s share. We have witnessed recent theoretical models attempted to reconcile of these contradictory facts. For example, Echevarria (1997), Kongsamut, Rebelo and Xie (2001), Acemoglu and Guerrieri (2008) and Young (2010) are among others. I will set up a neoclassical two-sector optimal growth model with technical progresses based on the model studied by Uzawa (1964) and Ara (1969). I will apply the turnpike theory developed by Scheinkman and McKenzie instead of Uzawa’s analytical method. I will demonstrate that 1) there exists an optimal steady state (OSS) where each sector ’ output grows at the sector specific echnical progress and 2) the optimal path with a sufficient initial stock will converge to the OSS. The first result implies that the OSS exhibits Kaldor ’s stylized facts, and the second one implies that the optimal path will feature the Kuznets Process through its transitionperiod.