Effects of involvement and affection of communication including numerical risk information on the attitudes change

这项研究的目的是评估日本公民的算术水平，探索这些水平与对各种任务的判断之间的关系，并检查对现实生活中的概率预测的判断。2012年，包括东京在内的关东地区对公民进行了一项互联网调查。所有受试者(n=5553)回答了利普库斯等人的S(2001年)计算能力量表。调查结束后，对来自调查(n=960)的按年龄、教育程度和算术水平分层的样本进行了实验。参与者提供了他们对几项任务的判断和决定。结果显示，学生算术能力得分的中位数为10分(满分11分)，在性别、年龄和受教育程度上存在显著差异。许多错误都是在现实世界的物品中发现的。低计算能力的参与者在现实世界的任务(彩票问题)中表现出明显更高的决策偏见。然而，在其他问题上(例如，Tversky&Kahnemans[1981]的亚洲疾病问题)，偏见是常见的。两个级别的参与者对发布概率地震预报都表现出积极的态度。然而，当预测值改变并且概率降低时，低计算能力的参与者的恐惧显著增加，而高计算能力的参与者则减少了恐惧。这一结果表明，算术教育对风险沟通非常重要。

The purpose of the study is to assess Japanese citizens’ numeracy levels, to explore the relationships between those levels and judgments for various tasks, and to examine judgments toward real-life probabilistic forecasts. An Internet survey was administered to citizens in the Kanto area including Tokyo in 2012. All the participants (n = 5553) answered Lipkus et al.’s (2001) numeracy scale. After the survey the experiment was conducted for the stratified samples that were from the survey (n =960) by age, education, and numeracy levels. Participants provided their judgments and decisions for several tasks. The results showed that the median of the numeracy scores were 10 out of 11, with significant differences in gender, age, and education levels. The many errors were found in real-world Items. Low-numeracy participants showed significantly higher decision biases in real-world tasks (the lottery problem). Yet, in other problems (e.g., Tversky & Kahnemans’ [1981] Asian disease problem), the biases were common. Both levels of participants showed positive attitudes toward issuing probabilistic earthquake forecasts. When the forecast values were changed and the probability decreased, however, fear increased significantly for low-numeracy participants, in contrast to the high- participants, whose fear decreased. This result indicates that numeracy education is highly important for risk communication.