A basic analysis for flood control of small rivers and securing water resources under post disaster condition by using optimized control of reservoirs

灾后水库优化调度小河流防洪保障水资源的基础分析

• 批准号: 22560512
• 负责人: OISHI Satoru
• 金额: $ 2.83万
• 依托单位: Kobe University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2010 至 2012
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22560512/
• 关键词: レーダー; 雨水貯留制御; 早期予測; 減災; 洪水制御; アンサンブル気象予報; 貯留施設制御; 事前放流; 短時間降雨予測; 流出モデル; 一般化最尤不確定推定法; 偏波レーダー; 予測不確実性; アンサンブル短時間降雨予測; 氾濫; リスク解析; 被害解析; 降雨粒径分布; 分布型流出モデル; アンサンブル短時間隆雨予測

In the present study, we developed methods, algorithms and computer systems which reduce floods in urban area by optimizing the releasing discharge from smaller reservoir. Specifically, we developed hydrological simulators based on distributed hydrological model in which rainfall information from radar with some extent of error which was quantitatively utilized for giving probabilistic flood forecasting. Then, an optimized method was applied for flood control using reservoir with stochastic flood forecast. First, a probabilistic method for short term rainfall forecast was achieved by using radar echo extrapolation method with singular vector for making probabilistic ensembles. Then, a hydrological model which also deals with probabilistic spread based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Second, an optimized control algorithm using Dynamic Programming has been applied for flood control by using reservoir. In the present study, we use Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) for dealing with weekly ensemble weather forecasting issued from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). In the SDP, objective function was minimizing the water level at a point in lower river basin. The result of the SDP with weekly ensemble weather forecasting made water level reduced and the objectives of the present study has been achieved.

在本研究中，我们开发的方法，算法和计算机系统，减少城市地区的洪水，通过优化释放流量从较小的水库。具体而言，我们开发了基于分布式水文模型的水文模拟器，其中雷达降雨信息具有一定程度的误差，定量地用于概率洪水预报。在此基础上，提出了随机洪水预报条件下水库防洪调度的优化方法。首先，利用雷达回波外推方法，利用奇异向量构造概率集合，实现了短期降水预报的概率方法。然后，基于广义似然不确定性估计（GLUE）的水文模型，也处理概率传播。其次，运用动态规划的优化控制算法，对水库防洪进行优化控制。本研究利用随机动态规划法（SDP）处理日本气象厅（JMA）发布的每周集合天气预报。在SDP中，目标函数是最小化下游流域某一点的水位。SDP与每周集合天气预报的结果使水位降低，达到了本研究的目的。

项目成果

Estimation of rainfall intensity by using X-Band Polarimetric Radar wit h raindrop falling trajectory

基于雨滴下落轨迹的X波段偏振雷达估算降雨强度

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Oishi;S
• 通讯作者: S

アンサンブル予報を利用した名張川上流ダムの統合操作の最適化に関する研究

基于集合预报的名张河上游大坝综合运行优化研究

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: 小林 薫;松元和伸;森井俊広;井上光弘;小林 薫;桝田ひろこ
• 通讯作者: 桝田ひろこ

X-バンド二重偏波ドップラーレーダーで観測された強雨域の偏波間位相差変化率の分布の特徴

X波段双偏振多普勒雷达观测暴雨区偏振间相位差变化率分布特征

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: 鈴木秀輔;大石哲;佐野哲也
• 通讯作者: 佐野哲也

Structure, Maintenance and Development of a Stationary Convective System Generated over a Mountain Slope Adjoining a Bay in Summer

夏季毗邻海湾的山坡上产生的静止对流系统的结构、维持和发展

• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan
• 作者: Tetsuya SANO;Satoru OISHI and Kengo SUNADA
• 通讯作者: Satoru OISHI and Kengo SUNADA

Advanced Usage of GPS Slant Delay for Detecting Water Vapor Variation Over the Osaka bay

GPS倾斜延迟检测大阪湾水汽变化的先进应用

• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Proceedings of ION-GNSS 2012
• 作者: Satoru OISHI;Kota Tsuchiya;Akira WADA;Tetsuya IWABUCHI and Eiichi NAKAKITA
• 通讯作者: Tetsuya IWABUCHI and Eiichi NAKAKITA