Econometric Analysis for Unconventional Monetary Policy:At Zero Lower Bound

本研究的研究成果已在日本货币经济学会春季年会上发表（日期：2013年5月25日- 26日）。地点：一桥大学)。本文试图揭示日本央行实施量化宽松政策的2000年代中期日本经济复苏的机制。我们的分析使用了基于协整VAR的结构性VMA，主要发现营业利润（AS侧）的改善对实际消费支出（AD侧）产生了正反馈效应，而实际消费支出是价格和实际产出恢复的组成部分。然而，没有发现总需求的唯一改善，因此与实际产出相比，价格的回升幅度非常小。

A research results of this Study,which had been presented for Spring Annual Meeting at Japan Society of Monetary Economics (Dates: May 25 – 26,2013.Venue: Hitotsubashi University).The article attempts to uncover the mechanics of the Japanese economic recovery in the middle 2000s that implemented the Quantitative Easing Policy by the Bank of Japan. Our analysis use a structural VMA which is based on Cointegrated VAR. The main finding is that the improvement in operating profits(AS side) brought positive feedback effect on real consumption expenditure(AD side), which was the component of prices and real output recovery. However, the solely improvement in aggregate demand ware not detected, so prices recovery ware remarkably small compared with real output.