Seismic risk analysis for civil engineering facilities as multiple linear system and GIS-based visualization of system risk

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The present research was carried out by three Steps. In Step1, the procedure for system risk analysis has been formulated by combining damage probability theory and system reliability theory. The proposed system risk analysis provides essential risk outcomes such as seismic event risk curves of system, operation outage time diagram, bottleneck index of each component, and risk indices as NEL and PML. As Step2, three numerical simulations were conducted; the water-supply facility with sixteen branching pipes, Tomei & new Tomei expressways including connecting road, and Tokaido Shinkansen system connected by seventeen sub-facilities. Step3 deals with GIS-based panoramic visualization of system risk.The importance and usefullness of seismic risk curves and PML evaluation considered as the quantitative information can be highlighted from the viewpoints of earthquake disaster mitigation and decision-making for asset management.