Reservoir operation considering long-term ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts

提出了一种考虑长期集合水文气象预报的水库调度方法。结合日本气象厅提供的月降水集合预报，探讨和阐明了提高水库实时调度效果的方法。此外，通过引入一种具有任意不确定性的随机水文气象预报的人工生成方法，建立了与集合预报具有相似理论基础的随机水文气象预报的随机影响评估模型，以便于考虑集合水文气象预报的水库调度的有效设计。

A reservoir operation method considering long-term ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts were developed. The method to improve the effectiveness of real-time reservoir operation was investigated and clarified considering the monthly ensemble forecast of precipitation provided by Japan Meteorological Agency. Moreover, a stochastic impact assessment model of stochastic hydro-meteorological predictions, which have a similar theoretical basis with ensemble predictions, was developed by incorporating an artificial generation method of stochastic hydro-meteorological predictions with arbitrary degrees of uncertainty, in order to contribute to efficient design of reservoir operation considering the ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts.