Modelling of International Cargo Transportation Firm Behavior and Trade Estimation for Evaluating Port/Maritime/Trade Policies

本研究发展了三种货物运输模型。评估模型的可重复性和有效性。(1)建立了空间可计算平衡模型。模型中包含了货物运输企业行为和货运机制。该模型被用于估计运输市场变化和政策的影响，如船舶尺寸的增加和放松航线管制。(2)建立了考虑船舶停靠调度的托运人港口选择行为模型。该模型被应用于估计每周一天的新停靠服务和取消在特定港口停靠和/或装运的激励措施的影响。(3)建立了货物运输分配模型。集装箱码头的规模经济用模型表示。将该模型应用于船舶尺寸增大和燃油价格飙升的影响评估。

This study developed three models of cargo transportation. The models were assessed reproducibility and validity. (1) A spatial computable equilibrium model was developed. A cargo transportation firm behavior and a freight mechanism is included in the model. The model was applied to estimating impacts of transportation market changes and policies such as an increase of ship size and deregulation of cabotage. (2) Shippers' port choice behavior models were developed by considering vessel calling schedule. The model were applied to estimating impacts of a new calling service by a day of the week and an abolition of incentives to calling and/or shipment at a particular port. (3) Cargo transportation assignment model was developed. Economy of scale at container terminal is expressed in the model. The model was applied to estimating impacts of an increase of ship size and a soaring fuel price.