Projected change due to global warming in intense extratropical cyclones

利用11个气候模式，研究了造成强降水、降雪和大风灾害的强热带气旋在全球变暖过程中的变化。在北方冬季，许多模式都有一个共同点，即强气旋的数量增加，风暴路径极地一侧的气旋平均增长率增强，特别是在北太平洋。高层纬向风在这些地区也普遍增强，并与月时间尺度上的平均增长率高度相关。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋发展过程中高层和低层贡献的估算，发现高层对气旋发展的贡献在未来气候中将逐渐增加。

The projected change due to global warming in intense extratropical cyclones, which bring about disasters by heavy rainfall, snowfall, and strong wind, is investigated using 11 climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere winter, it is common to many models that the number of intense cyclones increases, and that the mean growth rate of the cyclones is enhanced on the polar side of the storm tracks, especially in the North Pacific. The upper-level zonal wind is also commonly enhanced around these regions, and highly correlated with the mean growth rate on a monthly time scale. Contributions from upper and lower levels to the cyclone growth are estimated in the western North Pacific, and the result suggests that the contribution from upper level is increasing in the future climate.