Exploration versus Exploitation? A Boundedly Rational Decision on Alliance Portfolio Configurations

本研究探讨企业在联盟投资组合中配置勘探开发时，如何因应超期望绩效做出有界理性决策。我们运用行为启发式方法来探讨超期望绩效的作用以及CEO过度自信的影响。我们还认为，过度自信的作用受到环境因素的影响。本文以1992-2015年美国高科技公司为样本，对三个假设进行了检验。结果表明，高于期望的绩效激励企业参与探索而不是剥削联盟，CEO的过度自信加强了这种关系。过度自信的调节作用随着环境的慷慨度和动态性而减弱。

This study investigates how firms make boundedly rational decisions in response to above-aspiration performance when configuring exploration and exploitation in an alliance portfolio. We employ behavioral heuristics to explore the role of above-aspiration performance and the influence of a CEO’s overconfidence. We also argue that the role of overconfidence is influenced by environmental factors. Three hypotheses are tested using a sample of U.S. high technology firms during 1992-2015. Results establish that above-aspiration performance motivates firms to engage in exploration rather than exploitation alliances, and a CEO’s overconfidence strengthens this relationship. The moderating effect of overconfidence decreases with environmental munificence and dynamism.