The Impact of US - China Trade War on Vietnam

中美贸易战对越南的影响

• 批准号: 22K01456
• 负责人: WIE Dainn
• 金额: $ 2.16万
• 依托单位: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2022-04-01 至 2025-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22K01456/
• 关键词: trade war; trade diversion; export; FDI; productivity; trade competition; firm productivity; informal employment; Foreign direct

In FY2022, we performed an extensive literature review and conducted a comprehensive data analysis. We learned the literature on trade diversion and firms’ entry into the export market. Then, we investigated the evidence of trade diversion in Vietnam, driven by the US-China trade war, which allowed Vietnamese firms to gain relatively favorable access to the US market. Using the US import data, we showed that the trade war significantly increased the import of targeted products from Vietnam. We further explored firms’ responses using microdata and demonstrated that those affected by the US-China trade war are more likely to be an exporter and receive FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). Using tariff wedges as an instrumental variable, we also found that firms that became an exporter experienced a considerable increase in productivity.

于2022财政年度，我们进行了广泛的文献回顾并进行了全面的数据分析。我们学习了关于贸易转移和企业进入出口市场的文献。然后，我们调查了越南贸易转移的证据，这是由美中贸易战推动的，这使得越南公司能够相对有利地进入美国市场。利用美国进口数据，我们发现贸易战显著增加了来自越南的目标产品的进口。我们使用微观数据进一步探讨了企业的反应，并证明受美中贸易战影响的企业更有可能成为出口商并获得FDI（外国直接投资）。使用关税楔子作为工具变量，我们还发现，成为出口商的公司的生产率有了相当大的提高。