The Impact of US - China Trade War on Vietnam

在2022财年，我们进行了广泛的文献回顾并进行了全面的数据分析。我们学习了有关贸易转移和企业进入出口市场的文献。然后，我们调查了在美国和中国贸易战的推动下，越南贸易转移的证据，这使得越南公司获得了相对有利的进入美国市场的机会。使用美国的进口数据，我们发现贸易战显著增加了从越南进口的目标产品。我们使用微观数据进一步探索了企业的反应，并证明了那些受到美中国贸易战影响的企业更有可能是出口商并接受外国直接投资(FDI)。使用关税楔形作为一个工具变量，我们还发现，成为出口商的公司经历了相当大的生产率提高。

In FY2022, we performed an extensive literature review and conducted a comprehensive data analysis. We learned the literature on trade diversion and firms’ entry into the export market. Then, we investigated the evidence of trade diversion in Vietnam, driven by the US-China trade war, which allowed Vietnamese firms to gain relatively favorable access to the US market. Using the US import data, we showed that the trade war significantly increased the import of targeted products from Vietnam. We further explored firms’ responses using microdata and demonstrated that those affected by the US-China trade war are more likely to be an exporter and receive FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). Using tariff wedges as an instrumental variable, we also found that firms that became an exporter experienced a considerable increase in productivity.