Vegetation changes during the last 400 years in norhern Yakutia, Arctic Russia: Evidence from pollen analysis and vegetation modeling

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The main objective of this proposal is to explore the impacts of changes in climate on arctic vegetation, with special respect to treeline dynamics in northern Yakutia during the last 400 years, and in the future 100 years, using both vegetation proxy methods and vegetation modelling. In accordance with the originally proposed working programme for the first three month, we analyzed modern sediment samples for pollen and macrofossils (and additionally for diatom and cladocera). Obtained organism assemblages are statistically significantly related to modern vegetation and climate parameter. We have also prepared input data for driving both the BIOME4 and the LPJ vegetation model. The current vegetation patterns and historical vegetation changes were preliminarily simulated in Yakutia, which revealed basically the arctic vegetation structure and functions. In order to achieve our final aims more works are needed in terms of reconstructing vegetation changes during the past 400 years from vegetation proxy data (pollen/ diatoms/cladocera) in northern Yakutia; improving the vegetation models and linking palaeovegetation simulation, vegetation proxy results and palaeoclimate modelling together; and predicting vegetation change and assessing the regional risk for the 21st Century in the context of past changes.