METHODS TO PREDICT THE TIME OF CREEP FAILURE

评价软岩的蠕变特性时应考虑蠕变破坏。如果不太可能发生蠕变破坏，则蠕变特性可以用蠕变系数和延迟时间常数来表示。给出了几种估算蠕变失效时间的方法。在加速爬行阶段，我们应用了斋藤的技术。然后，考虑了预测时间与预测精度的关系。在二次蠕变阶段，检验了基于最小应变速率与蠕变失效时间关系的预测方法的有效性。最后，我们考察了在早期阶段进行预测的可能性。在本文中，我们考虑了使用这些技术估计蠕变失效时间的精度的方法。

The creep characteristic of soft rocks should be evaluated by considering the creep failure. If the creep failure is not likely to occur, creep characteristics can be expressed in terms of creep coefficients and delay time constants. we presented the some ways of estimating creep failure time. At the acceleration creep step, we applied a technique of Saito. Then, it considered about the relation between the prediction time and the prediction precision. At the secondary creep step, we examined about the effectiveness of the way of prediction based on the relation between the minimum strain rate and the creep failure time. Lastly, we examined about the possibility of prediction at the step in the early stages. In this paper, we consider the way of the precision which used these techniques of estimating creep failure time.