Analyses on Dynamic Travel Behavior under Travel Time Uncertainty and Measurement of the Effects of Travel Time Information

本研究的目的是分析出行时间不确定性下汽车驾驶员的行为，并测量出行时间信息对驾驶员行为的影响。本研究在前人研究成果的基础上，对不确定条件下汽车用户的出行行为进行了描述。其次，利用关于路径选择和停车选择的出行调查，对动态出行行为进行分析，并试图测算动态出行信息对出行行为的影响。(1)回顾了前人关于不确定条件下出行行为的研究，总结了该领域的研究问题。(2)基于随机效用理论，将出行时间不确定条件下的路径选择和停车选择过程描述为两步模型。(3)利用丰桥县的出行调查数据，分析了各因素对出行时间选择的影响。研究发现，影响发车时间的安全裕度反映了航班延误损失的大小。研究还发现，影响路径选择行为的因素不仅有路线选择中被认为重要的因素，还有路线的路段特征等其他因素。(4)利用丰桥CBD停车选择调查数据，分析了各因素对停车选择的影响。研究发现，停车信息的动态提供对出行前和出行途中的停车选择行为均有影响。(5)本研究构建了仿真模型的框架，但由于研究周期的限制，无法实现仿真模型的应用。

The purpose of this study is to analyze the car driver's behavior under travel time uncertainty and to measure the effect of the travel time information on driver behavior. In this study, based on the results of previous research, we formulate the travel behavior of car user under uncertainty. Secondly, using the travel surveys on route choice and parking choice, we analyze the dynamic travel behavior and try to measure the effect of dynamic travel information on behavior. Finally, we try to build a simulation model for measuring the overall effects of dynamic information system.The results of the study are as follows :(1)The previous studies concerning the travel behavior under uncertainty are reviewed and research issues in this area are summarized.(2)Based on the random utility theory, the processes of route choice and parking choice under travel time uncertainty are formulated as two step models.(3)Using the data of travel surveys in Toyohashi, the effects of factors on the travel time choice were analyzed. It was found that the safety margin which influences on the departure-time of travel reflects the magnitude of the loss of the schedule delay. It was also found that not only the factors which have been considered important in route choice but also other factors such as link characteristics of route affect the route choice behavior.(4)Using the data of parking choice survey at the CBD of Toyohashi, the effects of factors on parking choice were analyzed. It was found that the dynamic provision of parking information affects the parking choice behavior both before the start of travel and en route.(5)Framework of a simulation model was constructed in this study, but applications of the simulation model can not be implemented due to the limit of research period.