Development of traffic flow model for estimating vehicle emissions accuratery

开发交通流模型以准确估算车辆排放

• 批准号: 09650592
• 负责人: KASHIMA Shigeru
• 金额: $ 1.98万
• 依托单位: Chuo University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1997 至 1999
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09650592/
• 关键词: traffic survey; link traffic flow; OD trips; trip based survey; activity based survey; characteristics of fluctuation; error; 調査誤差; トリップ調査; アクティビティー調査; OD交通量の修正; 傾向誤差; 配分; 偶然変動; 傾向変動; 経路選択; 貨物車; 交通量変動; 交通量調査の精度; 修正OD交通量; 貨物車の経路選択

This study aims at developing a precise traffic flow model for estimating the amount of environmental pollution discharged by cars, and consists of following four subjects. 1) analysis on characteristics of traffic flow fluctuation, 2) analysis on accuracy of traffic surveys, 3) developing a technique to revise estimated OD trips using surveyed each link traffic flow volume, 4) analysis on characteristics of route choice decision of freight vehicle drivers. The results are summarized as follows.(1) The range of fluctuation in traffic flow on the principal road in Tokyo is about 3-5% to the average daily traffic volume. The fluctuation can be divided into random and systematic fluctuation. These two fluctuation ratio is about 6:4.(2) In addition to random error, manual count traffic flow surveys have a negative systematic error. The size of negative systematic error becomes larger with a number of vehicles counted.(3) When OD trips are investigated by the questionnaire survey method, 20-30% of trips will be missing. Almost all of missing trips are as follows; short distance trips around the house, trips which drop in for a short visit on the way of a long distance tip, and trips done by a person who has a lot of trips in a day.(4) The accuracy of OD trips estimation is greatly improved by using exact link flow volume, especially in case that OD trips has a large systematic error.Although several analysis have been tried on characterstics of OD trip fluctuation and characteristics of route choice decision of freight vehicle drivers, we can not get reliable results on these subjects within the term of this study. We are sorry to say they remain as future study subjects.

本研究旨在建立一个精确的交通流模型，以估算汽车排放的环境污染物量。1)交通流波动特性分析; 2）交通调查精度分析; 3）提出了利用各路段交通流量对OD出行估计值进行修正的方法; 4）分析了货车驾驶员的路径选择决策特性。结果总结如下。(1)东京主要道路上的交通流量波动幅度约为平均每日交通量的3-5%。波动可分为随机波动和系统波动。这两种波动的比例约为6：4。(2)除随机误差外，人工计数交通流调查也有负的系统误差。随着车辆数量的增加，负系统误差的大小会变得更大。(3)如果采用问卷调查法调查OD出行，会有20-30%的出行被遗漏。几乎所有错过的旅行如下;在房子周围的短途旅行，在长途旅行途中短暂访问的旅行，以及一天中有很多旅行的人所做的旅行。(4)在OD出行具有较大系统误差的情况下，采用准确的路段流量可以大大提高OD出行估计的准确性，虽然对OD出行波动特征和货运车辆驾驶员路径选择决策特征进行了多种分析，但在本研究的时间范围内，还没有得到可靠的结果。我们很遗憾地说，他们仍然是未来的研究对象。

项目成果

G.Cho, S. Kashima and M. Tanishita: "Analysis of daily traffic variation on urban principal rosds"Traffic Engineering. Vol.18 (Japanese). 153-156 (1998)

G.Cho、S. Kashima 和 M. Tanishita：“城市主干道每日交通变化分析”交通工程。

G. Cho, M. Tanishita and S. Kashima: "A study on acuracy of link traffi flow survey"Infrastructure Planning. Vol.21(2)(Japanese). 917-920 (1998)

G. Cho、M. Tanishita 和 S. Kashima：“路段交通流量调查准确性的研究”基础设施规划。

S. Kashima, et al.: "A study on accuracy of manual count traffic flow"Traffic Engineering. Vol.33, No.6(Japanese). 36-43 (1999)

S. Kashima 等：“人工统计交通流量准确性的研究”交通工程。

H. Kosaka, G. Cho, S. Kashima and M. Tanishita: "Analysis of daily traffic variation on Metropolitan expressway"Traffic Engineering. Vol.(Japanese). 17-20 (1999)

H. Kosaka、G. Cho、S. Kashima 和 M. Tanishita：“首都高速公路日常交通变化分析”交通工程。

曹・谷下・鹿島: "断面交通量の調査精度に関する研究"土木計画学・講演集. 21(2). 917-920 (1998)

So，Tanishita，和Kashima：“断面交通量的测量精度研究”土木工程规划讲座集21（2）（1998）。