Research for a New Stochastic Long-term Wave Model and it's Application

本研究计画探讨利用一种新的波浪随机模式，重建长期预测基本演算法的可能性。该模型是由G.A.Athanassoulis等人提出的一种计算海浪长期统计的理性长期随机模型。在将波浪气候视为随机模型的相同框架下，研究了船舶在海浪中响应的长期统计预报算法。同时，为了更好地利用已有的长期波频资料，对该方法进行了改进。同时，针对不同格式的波浪统计数据，特别是不同采集周期的波浪统计数据，提出了一种简单的组合方法，使算法更加清晰。通过与长期预报结果的比较，表明基于新随机模型方法的简单波浪数据组合方法可以得到更可靠的长期预报结果，并对波浪载荷和船舶响应（螺旋桨空转、甲板湿滑、船舶加速度等）进行了长期预报。对几种波形数据组合模式进行了实验研究，并对算法的重构进行了进一步的探讨。

This research project discussed the probability on reconstruction of the essential algorithm of the long-term prediction by using a new wave stochastic model. The model is a rational long-term stochastic model for calculating the long-term statistics of sea waves which was proposed by G.A.Athanassoulis et al.On the basis of the same framework of treating the wave climate as a stochastic model, the algorithm for the long-term statistical prediction of ship responses in ocean waves was examined. And it was also improved for purpose of using the combination of some long-term wave frequency data that had been presented with some differences in data format. Meanwhile this project made its algorithm clearly by a proposed simple combination method of wave statistical data with some differences in format, especially the differences in wave data collecting period. And then comparing with reference to the long-term prediction results, it shows that it is possible to obtain more reliable long-term estimates by such a simple combination method for wave data, which based on the methodology of new stochastic model.The long-term predictions of wave loads and some ship responses (propeller racing, deck wetness, ship accelerations etc.) was executed for a few patterns of combination of wave data, and further investigations for reconstruction of the algorithm was discussed.