Dynamic Simulation Analysis of the Optimal Environmental Value-added Tax

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We formulate a Non-linear Dual Input-output Ecosystem Model based on the Laws of the Value Flow and Material Balance. We build in the model explicitly the emission structure of pollutants jointly made by the production and consumption activities. Specifying the model with the data of the Japanese economy in 1997, we simulate a policy prescription of emission taxes, which totally controls not only the emission of CO2, a main cause of the global warming, but also major air pollutants of NOx and SOx. We have verified effectiveness of the model by simulating a policy set of different cases. The simulation assumes implementability of a law and an audit system that every producers have to buy emission quotas in the quasi-markets of emission permits. The total amount of emission quotas issued by an authority is to be equated with the total upper-constrained amount of pollutants in the simulation. The prices of the emission permits, which would be realized in quasi-markets, are obtained by the simulation. Other policy variables are subsidies on the abatement activities of the industries. It has been shown that the subsidy can be almost covered by the sale of the emission quotas. However, it is also shown that it is almost impossible for the Japanese Government to clear the target in 2008-2012 which she has committed herself to attain in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 unless a drastic and rapid technological progress would be realized in the pollutants abatement industries. Furthermore, it is shown that the model is useful to simulate effects of the synthesized combined management of anthropogenic gas of methane, freon(chlorofluorocarbon), etc., with CO2, SOx, and NOx, as well as to simulate effects of a policy set of new alternative energies.We have developed the model, and applied it to the simulation of water quality in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and COD in Lake Kasumigaura and Japan Sea to prove adaptability and effectiveness of the model.