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冬季東アジアモンスーンの変動力学と予測可能性、及び長期変調

东亚冬季季风的动力学、可预测性和长期调制

基本信息

批准号：
13F03022
负责人：
中村尚
金额：
$ 1.09万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2013-04-01 至 2015-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

人為起源の地球温暖化に伴う気温上昇は特に北半球高緯度で著しいと予想され，東アジアでは冬季モンスーンの長期的弱化が予想されているが，ここ数年ユーラシア大陸では寒波・豪雪に見舞われる冬が増えている．この力学過程や予測可能性の解明は近未来の気候予測にとって極めて重要であり，これが本課題の目的である．Wang博士は，2012年１月下旬から2月前半にかけてユーラシア大陸に記録的な寒波をもたらした大気循環異常の時間発展と維持･形成過程について，気象庁全球大気再解析データJRA25データや最新のJRA55データの解析や力学診断を遂行した．その解析から，欧州・ロシア西部に記録的寒波をもたらした停滞性のブロッキング高気圧は，１月下旬に大西洋域から入射した停滞性ロスビー波によりロシア北西部に形成され，その初期の発達と西方への伸長には移動性高低気圧波からのフィードバック強制が重要であった一方，最盛期までの増幅や振幅維持には有効位置エネルギーの気候平均場からの変換が重要なことが判明した．後者は，北極海の海氷縁に伴う強い南北気温傾度や温かい大西洋と寒冷な大陸との間の広範な東西気温傾度に特徴付けられる傾圧的な気候平均場において，高気圧性循環異常がその南側の欧州大陸上にもたらす寒気移流や高気圧の西縁・北縁の暖気移流によりもたらされる．このとき，高気圧性循環異常は高さとともに西方・北方に傾く傾圧構造に特徴づけられる．加えて，地中海沿岸域に大雪をもたらした低気圧性循環偏差の形成・維持には北大西洋から伝播してきた停滞性ロスビー波が，それぞれ重要な事が明らかにされ，現在これらの成果を基に論文を執筆中である．

The man-made origin of global warming is accompanied by high temperatures in the northern hemisphere and the long-term weakening of winter weather in the northern hemisphere. the long-term weakening of the winter weather weather suggests that the weather is weak. Over the years, we have spent many years in the cold, snow and snow, dancing and dancing in the winter. The mechanics process is based on the possibility of understanding that the near future is expected to play an important role in the future. Dr. Wang, the purpose of this project. In the first half of January 2012, the cold wave in the first half of February 2012 was recorded in a cold wave. The maintenance of the normal time cycle formed a process cycle, just as the global airport reanalyzed the latest JRA25 analysis. The mechanics analysis was completed. The cold waves recorded in western Europe are stagnant. In late January, the incidence of stagnant waves in the Atlantic region is higher than that in western Europe. In late January, the incidence of stagnant waves in the Atlantic region is higher than that in the north-west. In the early days, it has reached the level of mobility in the West. During the peak period, the amplitude of the amplitude is maintained, there is a location, the average field is very important, the temperature of the north and south of the sea is strong, the temperature of the Atlantic is cold, the temperature of the west, the temperature of the west, the temperature of the north and south of the sea, the temperature of the north and south, the temperature of the Atlantic, the temperature of the west, the temperature of the west, the temperature of the west. In Europe, there is a cold current in the south, a warm current in the north, a In the Mediterranean coastal region, heavy snow is causing severe downwards. there is a deviation in the formation and maintenance of stagnant weather waves in the North Atlantic Ocean, and there is a clear understanding of important matters in the Mediterranean coastal area. it is now in the course of the implementation of the document on the results of the study.