BELIEVE – Building Enhanced financial resiLience by Integrating Environmental Variability into Economic dispatch

世界目前正在经历一场战略性的能源转型。大量资本正以债务融资、风险投资和私募股权投资以及保险费和养老基金投资的方式投入可再生能源技术。金融市场参与者在追逐有利可图的机会的同时，风险也很高。特别是，资产表现的潜在变异性对那些规划定价策略、定价金融风险、监测金融敞口或评估潜在未来投资的吸引力的人构成了重大挑战。因此，健全的电力市场模型对金融服务和能源运营商具有重要价值。一个常见的要求是需要了解资产或资产组合在不同的未来时间框架内的表现。Believe项目将在一系列与业务相关的时间范围内，为发电资产未来的运营和财务业绩提供更好的战略洞察。我们将通过增强发电资产未来回报的建模能力来实现这一点(经济调度)。在Believe项目的背景下，经济调度指的是对能源系统的市场动态进行建模。金融服务机构需要这种能力，以发掘未来的创收潜力，从而对个别资产或资产组合进行估值。从几个月到几十年的时间范围内都需要这种洞察力。这与“运营调度”不同，“运营调度”指的是每小时或每小时进行一次决策，主要是资产运营者关心的问题。经济调度的当前技术水平往往忽视了可变可再生能源(主要是风能和太阳能)渗透率增加所带来的挑战。通过Believe项目，我们的目标是通过纳入天气变化的影响来丰富传统的经济调度模型，无论是现在还是未来的气候。我们将在可变可再生能源比例不断增加的市场中展示这种增强的建模能力的效用。结果将是一种高度创新和强大的建模能力，代表着一种更全面的资产估值方法，有可能为金融服务参与者提供重要的额外洞察力。BELIEVE将由雷丁大学领先的应用天气和气候分析中心环境分析研究所领导。

The world is currently undergoing a strategic energy transition. Huge amounts of capital are being committed to renewable energy technologies in the way of debt funding, Venture Capital and Private Equity investment as well as insurance premiums and pension fund investments.Whilst financial market actors chase lucrative opportunities, the risks are also high. In particular, the potential for variability in asset performance presents significant challenges for those planning pricing strategies, pricing financial risk, monitoring financial exposures or assessing the attractiveness of potential future investments. Sound electricity market modelling is thus of significant value for financial services as well as energy operators.A common requirement is the need to understand how assets, or portfolios of assets, will perform over different future timeframes. The BELIEVE project will provide improved strategic insight on the future operational and financial performance of electricity generation assets across a range of business-relevant timeframes. We will do this through an enhanced capability to model future returns from generation assets ('economic dispatch').In the context of the BELIEVE project, 'economic dispatch' means the modelling of the market dynamics of energy systems. This capability is required by financial services organisations to explore the future revenue generation potential, and hence the valuation of, individual assets or portfolios of assets. This insight is required over a range of timeframes from months to decades. This contrasts with 'operational dispatch', which is about hourly or sub-hourly decision-making and is primarily the concern of asset operators.The current state of the art in economic dispatch tends to neglect the challenges posed by the increased penetration of variable renewable energy (primarily wind and solar). Through the BELIEVE project our aim is to enrich traditional economic dispatch modelling by incorporating the effects of weather variability, in both the present and future climates. We will demonstrate the utility of this enhanced modelling capability in markets with increasing proportions of variable renewable generation.The result will be a highly innovative and powerful modelling capability that represents a more comprehensive methodology for asset valuations, with the potential to provide significant additional insight for financial services actors.BELIEVE will be led by the Institute for Environmental Analytics, a leading centre for applied weather and climate analytics at the University of Reading.