Financial Risk Analysis for Climate and the Environment (FRACE)

气候与环境金融风险分析（FRACE）

• 批准号: 10031786
• 金额: $ 6.36万
• 依托单位: NQUIRINGMINDS LIMITED
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Small Business Research Initiative
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10031786
• 关键词: Financial; Risk; Analysis; Climate; Environment

Financial Risk Analysis for Climate and the Environment (FRACE) embeds environmental and climate risk analysis into the financial decision making for property investors.Investment in property, whether direct or indirect investment, represents one of the cornerstones of the financial industry. When investing in property, climate and environmental risks play and ever increasing role. For example:* Cost to landlord of building fabric retrofit to achieve environmental standards* Cost to landlord of energy retrofit to achieve environmental standards* Comparative cost to developer for different build and energy strategies* Long term cost to tenant, which is an aggregate of maintenance costs, energy costs and taxes.It is a complex market and complex decision space. The cost and risk pressures can be manifest through direct taxation, indirect taxation, legislation and new compliance measures, through to the softer measures of market sentiment, which in turn is felt through rental and resale revenues. The return in investment for current and future property investment is therefore highly dependent on government policy, market performance, technology innovation and eventually end user sentiment.FRACE addresses this challenge by using advanced accounting techniques to model these risks as discounts on future projected value of assets. This method turns softly qualified environmental risk into hard measurable impacts to a companies balance sheet and future project revenues and costs.There are three four aspects to the FRACE model* Engineering, building performance and financial models are create to outline the impact of different environmental risks on a companies balance sheet and future financial projections.* Advanced machine learning techniques are used to calibrate the these models using both historical and future data. This allows the model to continually learned and adapt to new factors* Scenario planning models, create a probability space of future situations. Investments in new property and the type of that property are just one type of scenario to mode* Mitigation modelling: creates actionable strategies that can be compared and measured against each other (e.g. retrofit scenarios) to understand the impact over various time linesFRACE combines several existing technologies, owned by the consortium, into an innovative new product:* FinGenie: AI powered audit tool, used by NI Audit office for deep accounts analysis* Economic analyser: scenario planner for real estate (used by Belfast, BCP and Ealing)* Energy and building stock modeller: developed by UoS and used by many councils.FRACE directly addresses the challenge of modelling climate and environmental impact against financial risk

气候和环境金融风险分析 (FRACE) 将环境和气候风险分析纳入房地产投资者的财务决策中。房地产投资，无论是直接投资还是间接投资，都是金融业的基石之一。在投资房地产时，气候和环境风险发挥着越来越重要的作用。例如：* 房东为达到环境标准而进行建筑结构改造的成本* 房东为达到环境标准而进行能源改造的成本* 开发商针对不同建筑和能源策略的比较成本* 租户的长期成本，这是维护成本、能源成本和税收的总和。这是一个复杂的市场和复杂的决策空间。成本和风险压力可以通过直接税、间接税、立法和新的合规措施以及市场情绪的温和衡量来体现，而市场情绪又通过租金和转售收入来体现。因此，当前和未来房地产投资的投资回报高度依赖于政府政策、市场表现、技术创新以及最终用户的情绪。FRACE 通过使用先进的会计技术将这些风险建模为未来预计资产价值的折扣来应对这一挑战。这种方法将软限定的环境风险转化为对公司资产负债表和未来项目收入和成本的硬性可衡量影响。FRACE 模型包含三个四个方面*创建工程、建筑性能和财务模型来概述不同环境风险对公司资产负债表和未来财务预测的影响。*先进的机器学习技术用于使用历史和未来数据来校准这些模型。这使得模型能够不断学习并适应新的因素*场景规划模型，创建未来情况的概率空间。对新财产的投资和该财产的类型只是模型中的一种场景* 缓解建模：创建可相互比较和衡量的可行策略（例如改造场景），以了解不同时间线的影响 FRACE 将联盟拥有的多项现有技术结合到一个创新的新产品中：* FinGenie：AI 驱动的审计工具，NI 审计办公室使用它进行深度账户分析* 经济分析器： 房地产情景规划器（贝尔法斯特、BCP 和伊灵使用）* 能源和建筑模型建模器：由 UoS 开发并被许多议会使用。FRACE 直接解决针对金融风险对气候和环境影响进行建模的挑战