Explaining and Predicting the Ocean Conveyor (EPOC)

EPOC将为大西洋经向翻转环流产生一个新的概念框架，以了解它在地球系统中的作用以及对天气和气候的影响。AMOC是气候系统的关键组成部分，负责海洋热量和淡水运输，与人为碳的通风有关，预计会经历或推动气候临界点。然而，海洋运输、通风和临界点之间的联系依赖于AMOC作为“大洋传送带”的共同概念观点，这是为了解释非常长的时间尺度（冰期-间冰期）气候波动而发展起来的。传送带示意图将千年时间尺度与人类时间尺度（天到100年）混为一谈，导致了观测和建模社区的误解，以及对AMOC在气候中的作用的错误期望。EPOC将利用20年来AMOC观测对AMOC变率和一致性的新认识，以及海洋观测技术和气候建模的进展，开发新的工具和方法，量化和解释过去AMOC的变化，以及其连通性或缺乏对地球系统的影响。通过联合观测和模型实验，重点关注下一代高分辨率耦合模型、机器学习技术和对古代用物的关键重新评估，EPOC将为AMOC、其经向连通性、反馈以及人类时间尺度上通风和翻转之间的关系生成一个新的概念框架。这将有助于更好地预测AMOC和相关的气候演变，包括快速变化的风险。

EPOC will generate a new conceptual framework for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, to understand how it functions in the Earth system and impacts weather and climate. The AMOC is a key component of the climate system, responsible for ocean heat and freshwater transport, associated with the ventilation of anthropogenic carbon, and anticipated to experience or drive climate tipping points. However, the link between ocean transport, ventilation and tipping points relies on the common conceptual view of the AMOC as a ‘great ocean conveyor’ which was developed to explain very long timescale (glacial-interglacial) fluctuations in climate. The conveyor belt schematic conflates millennial timescales with human timescales (days to 100 years), leading to misconceptions by the observing and modelling communities, and misplaced expectations about the AMOC’s role in climate. EPOC will capitalise on new understanding about the AMOC variability and coherence from two decades of AMOC observations and advances in ocean observing technology and climate modelling, to develop new tools and approaches to quantify and explain past AMOC change and how its connectivity or lack thereof imprint on the Earth system. Through joined-up observational and model experiments, focussing on next generation high resolution coupled models, machine learning techniques and critical re-assessment of paleo proxies, EPOC will generate a new conceptual framework for the AMOC, its meridional connectivity, feedbacks and the relationship between ventilation and overturning on human timescales. This will lead to better predictions of the AMOC and related climate evolution, including the risk of rapid change.