ASPECT: Adaptation-oriented Seamless Predictions of European ClimaTe

ASPECT：以适应为导向的欧洲气候无缝预测

• 批准号: 10048403
• 金额: $ 66.37万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10048403
• 关键词: ASPECT; Adaptation; oriented; Seamless; Predictions

ASPECT aims for the setup and demonstration of a seamless climate information (SCI) system with a time horizon up to 30yr, accompanied by underpinning research and utilisation of climate information for sectoral applications (‘middle-ground level’1). The goal is to improve existing climate prediction systems and merge their outputs across timescales together with climate projections to unify a SCI as a standard for sectoral decision-making. The focus will be on European climate information but we will also look more widely where there is a policy interest (e.g., disaster preparedness) and in regions of European interest. We will maintain a strong link into an exploit learning from the WCRP lighthouse activities on explaining and predicting earth system change. To provide a bandwidth diversity of information the SCI system will be based on multi-model climate forecasts, and will build on learning from projects such as EUCP. It will align with new activities on Digital Twins within Europe, including DestinE. The SCI will combine physical science aspects with those from other disciplines to ensure the information is robust, reliable and relevant for a range of user driven decision cases. The information package will incorporate baseline forecasts and projections (plus uncertainty), but also new frontiers will be explored (e.g., extremes which are of socioeconomic high-level interest). To be successful the research will encompass: Understanding and attribution of various processes along the timescales (such as exploring signal-to-noise ratio) and their impact on predictability, new ways of initialisation of the prediction systems, merging predictions with projections, provision of regional SCI for Europe by downscaling (statistical methods, AI) and HighRes models (including convection-permitting models) and innovative post-processing method enhancing the skill and robustness of the climate forecasts.

ASPECT的目标是建立和示范一个时间跨度长达30年的无缝气候信息系统，同时为部门应用（“中间水平”1）提供气候信息的基础研究和利用。其目标是改进现有的气候预测系统，并将其跨时间尺度的输出与气候预测合并，以统一SCI作为部门决策的标准。重点将是欧洲的气候信息，但我们也将更广泛地关注有政策利益的地方（例如，灾害准备）和欧洲利益区域。我们将保持一个强有力的联系，以利用从WCRP灯塔活动中学习解释和预测地球系统变化。为了提供信息的带宽多样性，SCI系统将基于多模型气候预测，并将建立在从EUCP等项目中学习的基础上。它将与欧洲数字孪生的新活动保持一致，包括DestinE。SCI将联合收割机物理科学方面与其他学科的方面相结合，以确保信息是强大的，可靠的和相关的一系列用户驱动的决策情况。该资料包将包括基线预测和预测（加上不确定性），但也将探讨新的领域（例如，社会经济高度关注的极端情况）。为了取得成功，研究将包括：理解和归因于沿着时间尺度的各种过程（如探索信噪比）及其对可预测性的影响，预测系统初始化的新方法，将预测与预测合并，通过缩小尺度为欧洲提供区域SCI（统计方法，人工智能）和HighRes模型（包括允许对流的模型）以及创新的后处理方法，提高了气候预测的技能和鲁棒性。