DYNAMIG. How migration decisions are made: diverse aspirations, trajectories and policy effects

欧盟及其成员国在移民问题上采取了广泛的政策，包括发展合作、边境管理和合法的劳动力市场准入。为了有效，政策必须基于对个人如何决定是否迁移的准确理解。DYNAMIG将填补科学和政策制定者关于潜在和实际移民的决策行为如何与给定的微观、中观和宏观因素（例如不同的社会经济地位）的政策相互作用的知识空白。我们把重点放在非洲作为未来欧洲移民最重要的原籍地区。我们在四个方面采用多学科方法：首先，我们沿着延伸的轨迹扩展移民决策动态的现有概念，并通过创新方法对这些概念进行测试，包括从尼日利亚、肯尼亚、塞内加尔和摩洛哥前往欧洲途中收集的移民数字日记。其次，我们开发了一个基于移动设备的在线选择实验工具，对来自原籍国和过境国的数万人在不同背景和移民阶段的愿望形成进行因果研究。第三，我们通过允许因果解释的方法研究政策如何影响移民决策：在不同背景下对受访者进行选择实验；塞内加尔创业培训干预的随机对照试验；以及对非洲EUTF的准实验分析。第四，通过对高层决策者的访谈和对政策文件的文本分析，我们分析了欧盟、成员国和相关非洲国家的移民政策设计是如何考虑移民决策的。为了最大限度地提高我们对政策制定的影响，我们将我们的研究融入到与欧洲和非洲的利益相关者（包括政策制定界、移民和散居组织以及民间社会）共同创造知识的有意过程中

The EU and its Member States pursue a wide range of policies that address migration, including development cooperation, border management, and legal labour market access. To be effective, policies must be based on an accurate understanding of how individuals decide whether to migrate. DYNAMIG will fill critical gaps in scientific and policymakers’ knowledge about how the decision-making behaviour of potential and actual migrants interacts with policies given micro, meso, and macro factors, e.g. different socioeconomic status. We focus on Africa as the most important future region of origin for migrants to Europe. We pursue a multi-disciplinary approach along four dimensions: First, we extend existing conceptualisations of the dynamics of migration decisions along extended trajectories and test these through innovative methods, including digital diaries collected from migrants en route from Nigeria, Kenya, Senegal, and Morocco to Europe. Second, we develop a mobile-device-based tool for online choice experiments to causally study aspiration formation across different contexts and stages of migration with several tens of thousands of individuals in origin and transit countries. Third, we study how policies affect migration decision-making with methods that allow causal interpretation: choice experiments with respondents in different contexts; a randomised controlled trial of an entrepreneurship training intervention in Senegal; and a quasi-experimental analysis of the EUTF for Africa. Fourth, through interviews with high-level policymakers and textual analysis of policy documents, we analyse how the design of EU, Member State, and relevant African policies that address migration takes into account migrant decision making. To maximise our impact on policymaking, we embed our research in an intentional process of joint knowledge creation with stakeholders in Europe and Africa, including the policymaking community, migrant and diaspora organisations, and civil society