Source Attribution and Transmission Dynamics of Campylobacter and Shigella Using Culture-Independent Molecular Methods in an Urban Slum in Dhaka, Bangladesh

虽然通过粪便-口腔接触接触肠道病原体的广泛途径是众所周知的，但我们对病原体特定传播的了解存在严重限制，特别是在资源匮乏的环境中的幼儿。这一证据差距的一个关键原因是由于细菌培养的低敏感性而难以检测到这些病原体，这对志贺氏菌和弯曲杆菌来说尤其是一个问题。对这些病原体的定量、独立于培养的分子诊断的发展和应用极大地改变了我们对人类疾病负担的理解，并准备为我们对这些病原体的更广泛的生态的理解做同样的事情。志贺氏菌和弯曲杆菌是研究传播生态学的模式生物，因为它们位于人与人(志贺氏菌)与环境(弯曲杆菌)传播连续体的两端。在这个项目中包括这两者提供了一系列可能的传播途径，从中我们可以促进我们对肠道病原体传播的理解。因此，这项提案的目的是了解在孟加拉国达卡一个资源匮乏的城市环境中，使用独立于培养的方法进行检测的肠道病原体的传播来源和途径。我们将通过使用系统动态建模方法来分析在家庭层面的纵向研究中产生的病原体检测数据来实现这一点。传播队列将包括结构化观察，以量化人类与环境的接触，并对家庭接触者、动物宿主和环境进行广泛抽样，以确定指标性感染的来源并确定其来源。活性聚合酶链式反应将被用来区分核酸和活生物，这将使我们能够直接测量疾病后可传播病原体脱落的持续时间，并建立从广泛的样本中推断活病原体的定量阈值。然后，这些数据将被用来将两个互补的数学模型--家庭动态和地方病发病率模型--参数化，以询问人与人之间的传播途径和环境传播途径的相互依赖性和相对重要性。病原体将通过对粪便和环境样本的子集进行短读和长读元基因组测序的杂交组装，在基因组水平上进行表征。这个项目将改变我们对肠道病原体传播的理解，从对粪便-口腔传播途径的广泛理解转向对病原体特定的家庭和环境途径的最高相关性。在流行和城市环境中，直接家庭接触与环境污染对志贺氏菌和弯曲杆菌传播的相对重要性尚不清楚，我们的建模方法将结合这些模式病原体在这一连续体上的位置。

While the broad routes of exposure to enteric pathogens through fecal-oral contact are well-known, there are critical limitations to our understanding of pathogen-specific transmission, especially in young children in low-resource settings. A key reason for this evidence gap is the difficulty in detecting these pathogens due to the poor sensitivity of bacterial culture, which is particularly a problem for Shigella and Campylobacter. The development and application of quantitative, culture-independent molecular diagnostics for these pathogens has substantially revised our understanding of the human burden of disease and is poised to do the same for our understanding of the broader ecology of these pathogens. Shigella and Campylobacter are model organisms to interrogate transmission ecology because they lie on opposite ends of the continuum of person-to-person (Shigella) versus environmental (Campylobacter) transmission. The inclusion of both in this project provides a range of likely transmission pathways from which we can advance our understanding of enteric pathogen transmission. The objective of this proposal is therefore to understand the sources and routes of transmission of enteric pathogens in an urban low-resource setting in Dhaka, Bangladesh using culture-independent methods for detection. We will accomplish this by using a systems-dynamic modeling approach to analyze pathogen detection data generated in a household-level longitudinal study. The transmission cohort will include structured observations to quantify human contacts with the environment and broad sampling of household contacts, animal reservoirs, and the environment to identify and attribute sources for index infections. Viability PCR will be used to differentiate nucleic acid from viable organisms, which will allow us to directly measure the duration of shedding of transmissible pathogen after illness and establish quantitative thresholds for inferring viable pathogen from a wide range of samples. These data will then be used to parameterize two complementary mathematical models, a household dynamics and endemic incidence model, to interrogate the interdependence and relative importance of person-to-person and environmental transmission pathways. Pathogens will be characterized to the genome level using hybrid assembly from short- and long-read metagenomic sequencing of a subset of stool and environmental samples. This project will transform our understanding of enteric pathogen transmission by moving from a broad understanding of fecal-oral transmission routes to pathogen-specific household and environmental pathways of highest relevance. In endemic and urban settings, the relative importance of direct household contact versus environmental contamination for transmission of both Shigella and Campylobacter is unknown, and our modeling approach will contextualize where these model pathogens lie on this continuum.