Towards an Integrated Capability to Explain and Predict Regional Climate Changes (EXPECT)

建立解释和预测区域气候变化的综合能力（EXPECT）

• 批准号: 10093446
• 金额: $ 89.35万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF READING
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10093446
• 关键词: Towards; Integrated; Capability; Explain; Predict

The climate system is changing rapidly and some regions have seen increases in extremes beyond what is expected from climate model simulations. To support targeted climate adaptation strategies, EXPECT will enable trustworthy assessments and predictions of regional climate change including extremes by developing a prototype operational capability for integrated attribution and prediction of climate. This ambitious goal is closely aligned with the WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change. EXPECT will identify and quantify the mechanisms by which physical processes govern regional climatic changes, including extremes, on interannual to multi-decadal time scales. It will do so by exploiting newly available climate simulations and Earth Observations (EOs), and by combining machine learning (ML) with physical methods. The research will target fundamental knowledge gaps related to atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere interactions, which represent major limitations in current climate predictions and projections, and in particular in understanding changes in European summer extremes. To underpin the research, and benefitting the wider research community, EXPECT will develop tools to efficiently analyse a variety of large data sets in combination that are hosted in different repositories across institutions. This will facilitate the exploitation of recent investments into high-resolution climate models and EO data. EXPECT will further build data science capacity for the scientifically robust, efficient and reproducible analysis of the massive data assets, including novel ML approaches, and provide training for the climate science community and the next generation of researchers in particular. EXPECT will thus deliver significant scientific and technological advances for society and the climate science community that will last well beyond the project, in support of WCRP’s strategic objectives.

气候系统正在迅速变化，一些地区的极端变化超出了气候模型模拟的期望。为了支持有针对性的气候适应策略，预期将通过开发综合属性和气候预测的原型操作能力来实现可信赖的区域气候变化评估和预测区域气候变化。这个雄心勃勃的目标与WCRP灯塔活动密切相符，以解释和预测地球系统变化。期望将识别并量化物理过程在多年到多年时间尺度上控制区域气候变化（包括极端）的机制。它将通过利用新近可用的气候模拟和地球观测（EOS）以及将机器学习（ML）与物理方法相结合来做到这一点。这项研究将针对与大气环流和土地大流相互作用有关的基本知识差距，这代表了当前气候预测和预测的主要局限性，尤其是在理解欧洲夏季极端变化方面。在研究下，并使广泛的研究社区受益，期望将开发工具，以有效地分析各种机构不同存储库中托管的各种大型数据集。这将有助于将最近的投资用于高分辨率气候模型和EO数据。期望将进一步建立数据科学能力，以对大规模数据资产（包括新型ML方法）进行科学，高效和可重复的分析，并为气候科学界，尤其是下一代研究人员提供培训。因此，期望将为社会和气候科学界带来重大的科学和技术进步，这些社会将远远超出该项目，以支持WCRP的战略目标。