THE EFFECTS OF TEENAGE AND ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS

在这项拟议的研究项目中，我们将：(1)制定和实施 一种新的准实验方法，它利用了 人类胎儿发育的某些生物过程的随机性， 即染色体异常流产的发生，在 结合调查数据，将统计数据放在稳健和紧凑的较低水平 以及青少年和/或非婚生子女的影响上限 关于母亲成年后的一系列社会经济结果；(2)测试 经济和社会学理论解释为什么有些妇女生孩子 青少年，而其他人则不是，通过验证估计者是否 结合这些理论得出了青少年生育的估计数字 在我们的范围内；以及(3)使用替代类型的信息和/或 结合我们的非参数边界的假设来探索方法 收紧我们提出的非参数界限的因果效应 提前生育和未婚生育，以便更精确和更 检查不是高度参数化的行为类型的版本 假设，如比较优势和/或共同要素结构， 在以前的研究中使用。使用来自国家纵向研究的数据 青年部(NLSY)和各种来源的补充数据，以 对染色体异常发生率进行估计 流产和其他生殖事件，我们将开发这一新的 调查青少年和未婚人士影响的方法论 生育：高中毕业率，高中后 教育程度、劳动参与率和工资 实现，结婚和保持婚姻的倾向，倾向 获得福利，以及生活在贫困中的倾向，这些 结果将在女性快20岁的S时进行衡量。

In this proposed research project, we will: (1) develop and implement a new quasi- experimental method that which exploits information on the random nature of certain biological processes of human fetal development, namely the occurrence of chromosomally aberrant miscarriages, in conjunction with survey data, to put statistically robust and tight lower and upper bounds on the effect of teenage and/or illegitimate childbearing on a range of socioeconomic outcomes of the mother as an adult; (2) test economic and sociological theories of why some women have children as teenagers while others do not by validating whether estimators that incorporate these theories yield estimates of teenage childbearing that lie within our bounds; and (3) use alternative types of information and/or assumptions in conjunction with our non-parametric bounds to explore ways to tighten our proposed non-parametric bounds of the causal effects of early and out-of-wedlock childbearing so that they are more precise and to examine less highly parameterized versions of the types of behavioral assumptions, such comparative advantage and/or common factor structures, used in previous studies. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY) and supplementary data from a variety of sources to generate estimates of incidence rates of chromosomally aberrant miscarriages and other reproductive events, we will develop this new methodology to investigate the effects of teenage and out- of-wedlock childbearing on: high school completion rates, post-high school educational attainment, the labor force participation rates and wages achieved, the propensity to marry and remain married, the propensity to receive welfare, and the propensity to live in poverty, where these outcomes will be measured when the woman is in her late 20's.