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FORECASTING ACTIVE LIFE EXPECTANCY AND POPULATION

预测活跃预期寿命和人口

基本信息

批准号：
3118114
负责人：
ANDREI ROGERS
金额：
$ 5.98万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1988
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1988-07-01 至 1990-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3118114
关键词：
human morbidity human population dynamics human population study longevity statistics /biometry vital statistics

项目摘要

This proposal describe a study that would extend multistate demographic methods to a new problem area: the analysis and forecasting of active life expectancy and the future active/inactive populations. By active life expectancy is meant the expected duration of well-being---a status that signifies an individual's independence in the activities of daily living. Current unistate methods for estimating these expectancies are deficient in that they ignore the possibility of a return from dependent to independent status. This is a direct consequence of their reliance on conventional life table models---models that only permit exists from the population and no returns. Multistate life tables, on the other hand, accommodate both decrements and increments and focus simultaneously on several interacting subpopulations. Hence they are uniquely suited for analyses of the evolution of active life processes---processes in which about a quarter of those persons becoming dependent return to independent status. This project seeks to apply multistate models to the study of active life expectancy. It will develop improved life table methods for describing and accounting for observed patterns of active life expectancy, using statistical models that link transition probabilities to explanatory variables. And it will develop improved projection methods for forecasting active life expectancy and the future active/inactive aged populations.

这项提议描述了一项将扩展多州的研究一个新问题领域的人口统计学方法：分析和预期寿命和未来的预测活跃/非活跃人口。所谓的活着的预期寿命是指幸福的预期持续时间-一种状态，表示个人在日常生活活动中的独立性。目前估计这些期望值的单一方法是不足之处在于他们忽视了从依附于独立的地位。这是一个直接的后果他们对传统生命表模型的依赖-模型只有来自人口的许可，没有回报。多态另一方面，生命表既可以容纳减量，也可以容纳递增并同时关注几个相互作用的亚群。因此，它们特别适合于分析活动生命过程的演化-过程中大约有一个其中四分之一的受养人返回到独立地位。该项目试图将多状态模型应用于研究有效预期寿命。它将开发改进的生命表用于描述和核算观察到的模式的方法活动预期寿命，使用将过渡联系起来的统计模型解释变量的概率。它会发展成活动寿命预测的改进投影法预期和未来活跃/非活跃老年人口。