EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CHRONIC DISEASE IN THE OLDEST OLD

高龄老年人慢性病的流行病学

• 批准号: 3118506
• 负责人: DOROTHY P. RICE
• 金额: $ 43.9万
• 依托单位: KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1988
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1988-07-15 至 1992-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3118506
• 关键词: chronic disease /disorder; disease /disorder prevention /control; disease /disorder proneness /risk; epidemiology; health care service utilization; human morbidity; human mortality; longevity; managed care; patient /disease registry

Declining mortality over the past several decades has contributed to an increase in the proportion of persons over 64 in the US population, especially of persons over 84, the "oldest old." This aging trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Since aging is associated with an increased incidence and prevalence of chronic disease, many health scientists predict that the demand for medical care will steadily increase in the years ahead. Others, however, believe that improvements in health care and reductions in risk factors are delaying the onset of chronic disease more than they are delaying death; thus, the interval between onset of disease and death is being compressed, resulting in a decreased demand for medical care services. The proposed research will compare the nine-year mortality, incidence and prevalence of chronic disease, and health services of a 1971 cohort that of a 1980 cohort. Each cohort will consist of 3000 randomly selected members of the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program aged 65 and over who have had at least one prior Multiphasic Health Checkup. Approximately one-third of each cohort will be 80 or older. Information on chronic disease diagnosis, cause-specific mortality, physiological and socio-demographic risk factors, and health services utilization will be obtained from computerized hospitalization and Multiphasic Health Checkup records and from medical charts. We will examine the hypotheses that in the 1980 cohort mortality is lower, chronic disease morbidity is lower, reductions in morbidity exceed reductions in mortality, and use of health services is lower. The study will be done by a team of experienced investigators on a sample of members of the largest HMO in the United States, with a high level of organizational commitment.

过去几十年死亡率的下降 美国64岁以上人口比例的增加 人口，特别是84岁以上的人，“最老的老人。“这 在可见的将来，人口老化的趋势将会持续。 由于衰老与发病率增加有关， 许多健康科学家预测， 对医疗保健的需求将在未来几年稳步增长 吧 然而，其他人认为，健康状况的改善 护理和风险因素的减少正在推迟 慢性病比他们推迟死亡;因此， 发病和死亡之间的间隔正在缩短， 导致对医疗服务的需求减少。 这项拟议中的研究将比较9年的死亡率， 慢性病的发病率和流行率以及保健服务 和1980年的数据一样。 每个队列将包括 从北方加州的3000名随机抽取的成员中 65岁及以上的Kaiser Permanente医疗护理计划， 之前至少接受过一次多阶段健康检查。 每个队列中约有三分之一的人将是80岁或以上。 慢性病诊断信息，病因特异性 死亡率、生理和社会人口统计学风险因素，以及 卫生服务利用率将从计算机化的 住院和多项健康检查记录， 医疗图表 我们将检验1980年队列死亡率 降低，慢性病发病率降低， 发病率超过死亡率的下降， 服务更低。 该研究将由一组经验丰富的研究人员进行， 美国最大的健康维护组织的成员样本， 具有高度的组织承诺。