FORECASTING LIFE EXPECTANCY AND ACTIVE LIFE EXPECTANCY

过去世纪的人口趋势已经发展 一系列的流行病学转变， 主要特点是寿命的延长和 特定原因死亡率的模式。 最近我们进入了 进入流行病学转变的新时代--一个以 通过主要退行性疾病的推迟或延迟（例如， 心脏病、中风和某些癌症）。 的结果 这些趋势，决策者寻求估计的规模和 未来老年人的健康状况。 但目前的 预测预期寿命和健康状况的方法 未来的老年人需要改善， 困难，关于其有效性和广度的辩论， 这些假设在应用于数据时存在差距。 NORC和芝加哥大学医学部 提出一系列医学人口学研究， 改进预测预期寿命的方法， 积极的预期寿命。 我们的方法在至少两个方面是独一无二的 方面：第一，明确临床和流行病学 疾病预防和治疗知识作为我们的基础， 估计影响预期寿命和积极生活的未来趋势 期待 将临床信息直接与预测联系起来 还没有做，但谁支付了这个问题的人， 最多的注意，雅各布A。布洛迪将主持一个顾问小组 监督我们的工作，我们的首席调查员也带来了 临床老年医学的专业知识，以拟议的研究。 第二，我们力求明确和精确的程度， 与我们的预测相关的不确定性。 我们将从统计学上 估计主要误差分量的大小， 预测-包括所反映的专家意见的可靠性 在预测中--并研究这些误差分量的传播 通过预测方法，以估计可能的 预测中的误差水平。 我们将总结这些结果 以区间（“置信区间”）的形式， 未来人口特征的概率 在这些间隔内。 综合起来，这些功能将 提高预测对政策制定的效用， 也将使我们能够突出未来研究的领域， 医学人口学

Demographic trends over the past century have taken developed nations through a series of epidemiologic transitions, characterized principally by increasing longevity and changes in patterns of cause-specific mortality. Recently we have entered into a new era in our epidemiologic transition--one characterized by the postponement or delay of major degenerative disease (e.g., heart disease, stroke and some cancers). As a consequence of these trends, policy makers have sought estimates of the size and health status of future cohorts of the elderly. However, current methods for forecasting life expectancy and the healthfulness of tomorrow's elderly require improvement, given statistical difficulties, debate over the validity and breadth of their assumptions an gaps in the data to which they are applied. NORC and the University of Chicago Department of Medicine propose a series of studies medical demography designed to produce improved methods for forecasting life expectancy and active life expectancy. Our approach is unique in at least two respects: first, we will explicitly apply clinical and epidemiology knowledge about disease prevention and treatment as our basis for estimating future trends affecting life expectancy and active life expectancy. Linking clinical information directly to forecasting has not yet been done but the person who has paid this question most attention, Jacob A. Brody, will chair an advisory panel overseeing our efforts, and our principal investigator also brings the expertise of clinical geriatrics to the proposed research. Second, we seek to make explicit and precise the degree of uncertainty associated with our forecasts. We will statistically estimate the magnitudes of major components of error in forecast--including the reliability of experts' opinions as reflected in forecasts--and study the propagation of these error components through the forecasting method in order to estimate the probable levels of error in the forecasts. We will summarize these results in the form of intervals ("confidence intervals") with associated probabilities that actual future population characteristics will lie within these intervals. Taken together, these features will enhance the utility of our forecasts for policy formulation and will also enable us to highlight areas for future research in medical demography.