Tipping points and early warning signals in complex ecosystems

复杂生态系统中的临界点和预警信号

• 批准号: DP170104096
• 负责人: Prof Peter Mumby
• 金额: $ 27.69万
• 依托单位: The University of Queensland
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2017-04-20 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP170104096
• 关键词: Tipping; points; early; warning; signals

This project aims to create a theory of early warning that uses spatial data available on system state, connectivity and environmental stress, and to create tools to infer the risk of ecosystem collapse. Many ecosystems have irreversible tipping points. Since their locations are often unknown, metrics may provide an early warning of collapse but are difficult to apply because they need long time series which are usually lacking. This project will use the Great Barrier Reef as a testbed because it has both long time series (standard approach) and rich spatial data (new approach), and exhibits early warning signs. We will use these tools to gauge whether symptoms on the Great Barrier Reef predict local collapse and to develop intervention plans.

该项目旨在创建一个预警理论，利用关于系统状态、连通性和环境压力的现有空间数据，并创建推断生态系统崩溃风险的工具。许多生态系统都有不可逆转的临界点。由于它们的位置往往是未知的，指标可以提供崩溃的早期预警，但很难应用，因为它们需要很长的时间序列，而这通常是缺乏的。该项目将使用大堡礁作为试验平台，因为它既有长时间序列（标准方法），又有丰富的空间数据（新方法），并显示出早期预警信号。我们将使用这些工具来衡量大堡礁的症状是否预示着局部崩溃，并制定干预计划。