Uncertainty quantification in terrestrial hydrologic systems

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This project aims to develop a framework to simulate, quantify and analyse the uncertainty in streamflow and vegetation dynamics via approximate Bayesian computation. Water is a fundamental resource, and a difficulty in water resource management is to make predictions in a changing environment. Uncertainties in predictions of natural systems due to observational and model error make this more difficult. It is anticipated that the results from this project will advance uncertainty analysis in hydrology and help understand how different types of data and information can inform model characterisation. This will be useful in providing vital information on the attributes and extent of uncertainty to inform water resources analysis, management and decision making.