DEMOGRAPHIC RESPONSES TO A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

建议的项目是我们早期项目的延续和扩展。 “变化环境中的避孕选择”项目。“其总体 目标是更好地了解人口对戏剧性事件的反应， 社会变革 Nang Rong区，泰国是一个理想的自然 实验室，以研究由社会 许多社会正在发生变化。 根据1984年和1988年收集的数据（这是 分析在早期的项目），我们提出了一个额外的一轮数据 1994年在1984年和1988年调查的那些村庄收集了1000万美元， 对前往布里拉姆（县城）、Nakornratchisima（县城）、 区域城市）和曼谷（国家首都）。 结果数据 一套将包括三波观察（1984年，1988年，1994年），多个 观察水平（个人、共同居住的家庭、住户、 （c）对前往三个主要目的地的移徙者进行跟踪， 迁移者和非迁移者的回顾性事件史数据。 建筑 在我们早期的工作中，社交网络数据将被合并到 社区、家庭和个人层面。 利用这些数据，我们建议分析两种可能的反应，社会 经济变革：避孕药具的选择和向外移徙以及 为人父母 拟议的分析将是多层次的推力，重点 个人、家庭和社区层面的变化， 考虑到这些水平的未观察到的异质性， 社会行为发生的网络的性质。 除了 对于这些多变量分析，我们将开始方法论和 描述性分析，特别是（a）秩序，多样性和清晰度 （B）村庄间、家庭间、 和人际关系网。

The proposed project is a continuation and expansion of our earlier project, "Contraceptive Choice in a Changing Environment." Its overall goal is an improved understanding of demographic responses to dramatic social change. Nang Rong district, Thailand is an ideal natural laboratory to examine the demographic responses triggered by the social changes underway in many societies. Building on data assembled for 1984 and 1988 (that are the focus of analysis in the earlier project), we propose an additional round of data collection in 1994 in the villages surveyed in 1984 and 1988 and a follow-up of migrants to Buriram (a county seat), Nakornratchisima (a regional city), and Bangkok (the national capital). The resulting data set will include three waves of observation (1984, 1988, 1994), multiple levels of observation (individuals, co-resident families, households, communities), tracking of migrants to three principal destinations, and retrospective event history data for migrants and non-migrants. Building upon our earlier work, social network data will incorporated at the community, household and individual level. Using these data, we propose to analyze two possible responses to social and economic change: contraceptive choice and out-migration and delayed parenthood. The proposed analyses will be multilevel in thrust, focus on change at the individual, household, and community levels, and take account of unobserved heterogeneity at each of these levels and the nature of networks within which social behavior occurs. In addition to these multivariate analyses, we will begin with methodological and descriptive analyses, particularly (a) the order, diversity and crispness of life course transitions and (b) the inter-village, inter-household, and interpersonal networks in Nang Rong district.