SERUM CHOLESTEROL, BLOOD PRESSURE, AND MORTALITY

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With data on 11,320 men initially aged 40-59 and without evidence of cardiovascular disease, it is proposed to analyze interrelationships among certain entry characteristics and between those characteristics and coronary, cancer, and all-causes deaths. The men form 15 cohorts in Finland, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United States, and Yugoslavia comprising over 90% of all men of the age of 13 geographically defined areas and in specified occupations and locations in the railroad industry in the United States and in Italy. In 15 years, 2,136 of those men died; 603 from cancer, 561 from coronary heart disease, and mortality varied markedly among cohorts and regions. Characteristics for attention are relative weight (body mass index), "frame" indicated by height and bi-acromial and bi-cristal diameters, fatness indicated by skinfold thickness, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and smoking habit. Inter-relationships among these characteristics and relationships between them and mortality will be examined by cohorts and groups of cohorts. Emphasis will be put on methods without assumptions about the form of the relations and the distributions of the variables. It is believed the analyses will find curvilinear as well as linear relationships and indicate the extent to which relationships are similar in populations differing in mode of life and other features. The results should be useful in the consideration of possible preventive programs. It is realized that the goals may not be fully attained in the limited period proposed, but important progress can be promised because the data are at hand in accessible form, the analytical needs are understood, and much work already done on this material by the applicant indicates methods to be used and directions to pursue.